hold your own hand.So where is price going tomorrow?
So tomorrow, you follow the fitty yourself, lol or you do whatever it is you do that works.
What timeframe charts do you like to trade?
What products do you like to trade?
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hold your own hand.So where is price going tomorrow?
here ya goPfft, so on his chart, you have to wait months and months for a set-up that MAY fail? Falling through the ice and drowning at the bottom. What a load of shit. How did it work out for him after 2009? How many more setups did he ever get on that DJIA?
What timeframe charts do you like to trade?Paper trading QCOM is not the same as trading DJIA with real money.
What timeframe charts do you like to trade?
What products do you like to trade?
So I ran some simple moving averages on Excel. Just simple moving averages. Like on SPY. But I tested everything from like 2 day moving averages (lulz) through 300 day moving averages.
All the numbers sucked versus just buy and hold. Way worse upside, and the max drawdown was barely reduced. It didn't matter the period.
HOWEVER, then I found a flaw in my equations. I had a < when it should have been a >. So... AHA! I had been testing like the REVERSE of moving averages, by when spot dropped below it, sell when it went above it. THAT'S why the numbers sucked! I was going to fix it and the numbers would truly be great!
Only, I fixed it, and the numbers still sucked. Which perplexes me much. If markets trend, how can moving averages (and their reverse) suck so bad?
Here is the best I can come up with: Stock prices, on average, move up over time. Thus, despite whatever the trend is, the stock is likely to go up the next day. For every day you are out of the market that is, on average, upside you are losing out on.
Is that the answer? Or why are they so bad?
Thanks!!!
llmflyfisher, What setup and entry triggers serve you well?I think traders spend way too much time trying to interpret indicators, which are just PA derivatives after all. Within the context of any given chart, i start by defining ranges and longer bar chart price bars (no open and close shown) overlap regions. Noise differentiation basically implies advanced awareness of price ranging; if we trade directionally then we want to capture linear movement between ranges. Simple works, although the analysis and mental preparation are anything but simple. The desired yield however is amazingly simply consistent. Moving averages can be useful within that context but the truth is no indicators are necessary. There are so many self-imposed impediments to accurately reading the structure of price action, that we all unfortunately go thru that pain to arrive at the solution, which after all lies right between our ears, and not in lines on a chart. Probabilities associated with testing. Systemic application of what moves price, namely need to fill orders. Did a moving average make that price move?
Did the market maker algo move price to where known resting stops were? Is price action choreographed to move in the most illogical manner, yet on some level is actually understandable in proper context? WHERE ARE THE RANGES? How are 60m and 15m bars overlapping? How badly do you want to ONLY trade the linear movement unimpeded "path of least resistance"? Ever wonder why trading platforms dont have the holy grail included in their roster of indicators? Do those opens and closes mean anything?
If trading was easy, there would be no barrier to entry.