I agree with much of what you said, except for the part where you mention the 1000 lots ES ... and that one or two players don't matter. Obviously excluding super high vol times, like 2008, the market is on 90% of the days, if not more, dominated by 1-2 large players. Most people who try trading the ES don't understand that it is a game of liquidity... and a 1000 lot or 2000 lot buy is exactly what these dominant players are looking for. If it isn't there 1000 lot, then it's a 1000 lot they try to use to churn a profit of a tick or two. they do this all day long. study the dom, study the time and sales, observe the cancel/replaces, and you'll see exactly what i'm talking about. day in, day out. same game, another day. *that* is the game!
Why do more than 90% of traders lose?
- Thread starter emg
- Start date
I agree with much of what you said, except for the part where you mention the 1000 lots ES ... and that one or two players don't matter. Obviously excluding super high vol times, like 2008, the market is on 90% of the days, if not more, dominated by 1-2 large players. Most people who try trading the ES don't understand that it is a game of liquidity... and a 1000 lot or 2000 lot buy is exactly what these dominant players are looking for. If it isn't there 1000 lot, then it's a 1000 lot they try to use to churn a profit of a tick or two. they do this all day long. study the dom, study the time and sales, observe the cancel/replaces, and you'll see exactly what i'm talking about. day in, day out. same game, another day. *that* is the game!
How do you know the trade setup for emg ? You are his broker ?
Because he posts it in the ES Journal, and yes, that's how he trades.
Now going back to our little 3 different brokers problem, they might not be able to reverse engineer the option trades but they can still frontrun or back them, since again, in the long run those account have to be profitable, if you are profitable...
This is an example of the type of perseverance one must have in order to be excluded from the 90%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bethany_Hamilton
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bethany_Hamilton
Step 1) Stop listening to news and other peoples opinions. And most of all stay away from trader blogs. 90% of these bloggers are losing traders, so if you follow their advice guess what?...
Step 2) Don't expect to find the Holy Grail in standard garden variety TA indicators that everybody is using. If 90% of traders lose money you want to be in the 10% doing the opposite of the herd.
Step 3) Find a robust edge (likely via countless hours of backtesting, forward testing, keen powers of observation, and applying logic/game theory)
Step 4) Use conservative smart money management. Do NOT use excessive leverage. Pay as much if not more attention to risk of loss per trade as you do to potential for gain. Don't try to get rich quick. Approach trading like a business not gambling for thrills. If you want thrills go to Vegas.
I have personally learnt all these lessons the hard way over the 15 years since I started trading. I figured out what I was good at, what trading style suited my personality, and found my niche. There is no substitute for hard work and experience, but even then some just will never have what it takes to succeed in what is quite possibly the toughest business there is, trading. So, if you can't hack then the alternative is to find a trading system or money manager to do it for you.
http://pocketaces.collective2.com/
Step 2) Don't expect to find the Holy Grail in standard garden variety TA indicators that everybody is using. If 90% of traders lose money you want to be in the 10% doing the opposite of the herd.
Step 3) Find a robust edge (likely via countless hours of backtesting, forward testing, keen powers of observation, and applying logic/game theory)
Step 4) Use conservative smart money management. Do NOT use excessive leverage. Pay as much if not more attention to risk of loss per trade as you do to potential for gain. Don't try to get rich quick. Approach trading like a business not gambling for thrills. If you want thrills go to Vegas.
I have personally learnt all these lessons the hard way over the 15 years since I started trading. I figured out what I was good at, what trading style suited my personality, and found my niche. There is no substitute for hard work and experience, but even then some just will never have what it takes to succeed in what is quite possibly the toughest business there is, trading. So, if you can't hack then the alternative is to find a trading system or money manager to do it for you.
http://pocketaces.collective2.com/
Because trading is like other professions in the world - show me the branch in an economy where the % of successful businessmen is higher then 5%!
Also, there is an important thing: when you become a trader = a boss to yourself = you stay with yourself on your own (not like if you were in the somebody's office, doing work for somebody, telling you what to do) - making your own trading decisions - THIS IS THE MOST DIFFICULT FOR ANY ONE - TO KEEP ITS EMOTIONS, DOUBTS, ETC, TO COMMIT A DECISION RESULTING PROFIT OR LOSS). Yeah, that is hard..)