That's not trading. That's something akin to martingale-ing. And the operator needs a huge account for that to yield an acceptable return. 200 trades is a long time to wait before recouping losses. Returns are minimal. What? 30-50% a year? If that?
Why do I see "Trends" in Randomly Generated Data?
- Thread starter Rahula
- Start date
That's not trading. That's something akin to martingale-ing. And the operator needs a huge account for that to yield an acceptable return. 200 trades is a long time to wait before recouping losses. Returns are minimal. What? 30-50% a year? If that?
Quote from oilfxpro:
Yes ,a trader highly skilled in money management can make money from a random chart.
Price on a random chart goes 1/5 atr in one direction , stop 20 target 20 , hit rate 49 %.
After 30 more losses than profits, double your lot ,When number of losses equals number of profits in last 100 trades , revert to original lot size.
If you develop this money management system further , you will never lose money , cause you will always recover your losses = net no loss.
What is it again that you trade that ALWAYS reverts to the mean? Enron? Worldcom?
I could out trade your ass any day of the week, son.
And I guess to a gambler like you, economics threads seem like entertainment.
And no, the 95-99% speculation figures are dead on. Check the futures against physical delivery and outstanding contracts. It's the same for every market. Forex, daily international trade + capital flow values against notional volume traded. Same shit . This is why you haven''t learned to trade. Because you have no idea what moves the market. You chalk it up to randomness because you're clueless than parade yourself around here like you're some authority on the subject. Not that it matters. There's a new batch of guys just like you that come through the gates every month that think they know what they're talking about then proceed to lecture everybody else on what they think they know. Blind leading the blind.
To you it's gambling. Not to real traders. If your edge is martingaling, you're not a trader. You're an educated gambler. Traders make consistent money because the market moves in a consistent fashion at consistent inflection points.
If you're such a pro, what are your returns like for the past 10 years? Or however long you've been profitable? I'm sure all the rookies around here are entitled to that. Gotta prove your credibility if u wanna lecture them up and down on what's possible and what's not.
The only reason to read you posts is for entertainment from the forum clown.I never said markets are random , but there are periods of randomness where people believe there are trends.Currencies trends are driven by fundamentals and interest rates , but this is only visible on longer time frame.On the small time frame like 1 minute , there are a lot of random trends.
Tomorrow you will come out with 90 % , but where is the evidence to back up your statements.
LOL The only clown I see is you. Parading yourself around as some guru lecturing everyone about martingaling. Look at your name for fucks sake "fxoilpro". You're a gambler. Not much more. And where are you returns ? The ones that prove you're a big hot shot pro? As far as speculative participation, those stats are a matter of public record. Look them up if you don't believe me. Then come back here and apologize. And maybe I'll forgive you.
All trading systems have their weaknesses, including mean reversion systems. It can get quite painful when the mean reverts to the price instead of vice versa 
You can't trade a mean reversion system unless you are measuring volatility. That's one of the biggest mistakes traders make. You HAVE to know the level of volatility in the market or you're doomed. You also have to know whether the market is non-stationary or trend-stationary or you're doomed.
The market is random -- period. To succeed in trading you have to use tools that analyze randomness. Remember folks, you are competing against traders who have PhD's or MS's in applied mathematics (i.e. advanced statistics) and computer science. If you're just drawing with your crayons you don't stand a chance.
You can't trade a mean reversion system unless you are measuring volatility. That's one of the biggest mistakes traders make. You HAVE to know the level of volatility in the market or you're doomed. You also have to know whether the market is non-stationary or trend-stationary or you're doomed.
The market is random -- period. To succeed in trading you have to use tools that analyze randomness. Remember folks, you are competing against traders who have PhD's or MS's in applied mathematics (i.e. advanced statistics) and computer science. If you're just drawing with your crayons you don't stand a chance.