Quote from spike500:
SAC and other big hedgefunds guessed clearly wrong in the VOLKSWAGEN-PORSCHE bet.
that's for sure!
Why do I see "Trends" in Randomly Generated Data?
- Thread starter Rahula
- Start date
that's for sure!
Quote from straywolfe:
Yes...While finding the responses interesting in and of themselves, I have to admit a smile or two while reading through them because the basic premise of the question is flawed. The foundation on which the premise rests being that a computer can generate random data, which in fact, it cannot.
You are talking about such trivial stuff. Yes, computers generate pseudorandom numbers, not completely random. The algorithm takes in a seed number, which defines starting state. Random seed is usually taken from computer's clock. So basically, chance of getting equivalent series of pseudorandom numbers is virtually zero.
Even if it's pseudorandom, so what? There are hardware random number generators. You would get the same results with them anyway.
Quote from marketsurfer:
Yes, They finally guessed right.
Why do you constantly talk shit about other traders' methods when you don't even trade?
The people are obviously making money trend-following. Who gives a shit if they can "predict" the market? The goal is to make money. Period.
Traders are paid for the ends not the means.
Quote from marketsurfer:
Yes, They finally guessed right.
LOL.....
It really is killing you. Yeah...guys like Dunn and JWH who have been around for 25+ yrs are just guessers.
Have you ever looked up the returns on people who have been with them all along? The returns are insanely high.
Come on Surf.....you can say it.....
"I was wrrrrrrrrrroooooooooonnnngggggg"
Lets check the scoreboard on blowups:
Neiderhoffer 2
Trend Followers 0
The best part is Smurf doesnt even realize that the last thing a trend follower tries to do is predict. They follow price action which gets them into/out of trades. They are reactionary.....not prediction makers.
Obviously nothing works right all the time...but in this environment, trend followers are killing it. Like any trader, they have their ups and downs. SAC and others (who have had huge success) are on the downslope right now...they will be back. Trend followers like JWH are killing it now....and at some point they will see their returns slow down....making 20-40% a month is not something I think can go on for long periods of time.
It's comical watching smurf talk about something he has no idea about...trend following.
wish i could remember the paper on the study of market randomness i read would shut this up imma look for it
hey guys this should be of interest to you.
Random equity curve simulator
http://www.hquotes.com/tradehard/simulator.html
Random equity curve simulator
http://www.hquotes.com/tradehard/simulator.html