Why do I see "Trends" in Randomly Generated Data?

[PitchBlack]

Quote from marketsurfer:

yes, i think your lucky.

with all due respect, if you have 80% winners over a 10 year period ( while directionally trading) why are you not SAC or a simons, seriously, that question needs to be addressed---as your returns should allow you to build a monsterous capital base, starting very small.

surf

Just to prove how silly your argument is:

Warren Buffet has a compounded rate of return of 21.4% a year for the period beginning at 1965.
I think most traders at ET pretend to make more than 21.4% a year, but none of them has joined Warren Buffet. Normally they should have beaten him easily.

The 7 days i posted are not representative what concerns the profit per trade. I had a very good period, but the ratio W/L stays above 80%, and the profit in points is "considerable".

 

[jack hershey]

Quote from ProfLogic:

Hey Surf, I have a better idea. Why don't you do the testing.
Oh, sorry, forgot . . . you aren't able.

I have 100 to 1 that Surf doesn't personally trade a lick. I mean gee, anyone with his posting record couldn't possibly earn a living at it.

Probably the Flat Earth president to boot.

Happy Easter . . . rabbit!

Surf is proposing having a thrid party do it so he can make sure the testing is to his satisfaction.

When he gets rolling on this we will see if he has any skills.

He may be shilling for this outfit for all I know.

 

[Jerry030]

Quote from spike500:

Just to prove how silly your argument is:

Warren Buffet has a compounded rate of return of 21.4% a year for the period beginning at 1965.
I think most traders at ET pretend to make more than 21.4% a year, but none of them has joined Warren Buffet. Normally they should have beaten him easily.

The 7 days i posted are not representative what concerns the profit per trade. I had a very good period, but the ratio W/L stays above 80%, and the profit in points is "considerable".

Then you have it! Congratulations.

The 80% WL ratio is a kind of magic number with manual traders (those that look at charts or TIs and make a decision in contrast to those who let the computer do the deciding). At least that was the comments I got from some CME seat holders I know. The manual group isn't able to exceed that consistently for several reasons:

1) Limited human bandwidth in dealing with multiple inputs

2) Random variations in judgment due to internal factors...a trader with a high glycemic load form a breakfast of a donut and coffee or stress due to a fight with the spouse has reduced cognitive functionality although they may not know it.

 

[ProfLogic]

Quote from marketsurfer:

actually, price charts are very deceiving. read "winer take all" by gallacher for a brief overview.

surf

Give it up Surf. YOU are a person that finds price charts decieving because you can't read them, don't understand them and can't figure out why or how they oscillate. That doesn't mean they are deceiving to everyone. Not everyone is as inexorable as you are.

Some of us actually do hands on laborious research putting our brains to complex tasks trying to find new and interesting things in the markets. We do not see the benefit in reading someones opinions about things that do not apply to our specific situations.

 

[HolyGrail]

Let's face it no one is going to convince the other side they are correct. You have people that consistently make money being told by people that consistently lose, or don't trade at all, that their methods do not work.

Consistency is not luck. You have spike who consistently makes money, and you have marketsurfer who consistently loses on his paper trades going for the home run.

When you consistently let 150 point gains on the YM turn into losses I can assure you that is not luck. I bet you can duplicate that over and over and over again.

 

[ProfLogic]

Quote from marketsurfer:

yes, i think your lucky.

with all due respect, if you have 80% winners over a 10 year period ( while directionally trading) why are you not SAC or a simons, seriously, that question needs to be addressed---as your returns should allow you to build a monsterous capital base, starting very small.

surf

Because my fair Surf, not all of us have the monstorous ego you have that needs to be fed by the social scene. The need to be recognized by all that gaze their eyes on you. You simply can't fathom someone with the knowledge to be consistent in these markets and NOT standing on a friggin stage somewhere shouting, "look at me and look at what I can do!. Give me your money so I may make you more money than you ever dreamed because I am the Surf."

Trading "other people's" money comes with obligations and confines. I don't know about spike but I like the idea of trading for myself and making my life and time my own. I know it pisses you off. Sorry.

 

[ProfLogic]

Quote from jack hershey:

Surf is proposing having a thrid party do it so he can make sure the testing is to his satisfaction.

When he gets rolling on this we will see if he has any skills.

He may be shilling for this outfit for all I know.

I guess he never had a grandfather who told him that if you want something done so you make sure it is done right . . . do it yourself.
Of course it's hard to tell an armless man to "hold on" or a sightless man to look at the stars.

 

[fluttrader]

Quote from spike500:

Are the markets composed of randomly generated data? No.


These are the results of my generated trades for the last 7 trading days in the ES (3/11 till3/20):
Number of days:7
Number of trades:11
Profitable trades:11
Avg points per trade:13.20
Avg trades per day:1.57

Do I post signals in advance: NO, the reason can be found in the following thread:

Avg points per trade 13.20 with how many contracts ?
Why not post your results over the last year or so, then we can see what is possible in the long run

no bashing intentions

 

[marketsurfer]

fact is the market is designed to extract the maximum amount of cash from the maximum amount of traders. 99% of small traders are noise traders who feed the machine that has an insatiable appetite. can one make money...sure....but the majority lose after winning streaks.

I find it incredulous that these few winning edge holders all post on elite.

surf

 

[Trader666]

Hershey's phoney "bring it on" bravado about doing this is laughable because he knows damn well that the testers would never get anything specific enough to work with. He once jerked around some guys from Harvard for over a year until they finally threw their hands up for that very reason. That's Jack's game and I'm surprised you even suggested this Surf ... something like: http://www.collective2.com/ would be better because the monkey would be on Jack's back to enter trades in advance.

Quote from marketsurfer:

how about JACK HERSHEY and PROFLOGIC submit to market testing wizards---odds are 10 to 1 they wouldn't DARE!

http://www.markettestingwizards.com