Why do I see "Trends" in Randomly Generated Data?

Quote from ProfLogic:

I agree with what you say but damn Jack, is it possible to condense your thought process a bit?

To condense the FOMC comment from my standpoint and experience.

There was a group of us watching the ES on both slower fractal and faster fractal charts before the announcement. The slower fractal showed us that price was still going up with strength. The faster fractal showed us that price was about to retrace.

Just prior to the announcement a short triggered on the faster fractal. It created a nice profit pool, stopped, reversed, triggered a long and went back up breaching the previous high creating another profit pool long.

All the while the slower fractal showed that particular move/retracement as a simple minor oscillation in the continued move up. which confirmed a short term top itself later that day.
More...


how about JACK HERSHEY and PROFLOGIC submit to market testing wizards---odds are 10 to 1 they wouldn't DARE!

http://www.markettestingwizards.com


:D
 
Quote from chinook:

If the system is viable, wouldn't they use the idea :p
More...


good point, but i think the contract precludes this possibility.

these faster fractal, slower fractal, profit pool and the other non testable ideas only exist in the world of fantasy and marketing. trading takes place in the here and now, everything else is fluff.

surf
 
Quote from kut2k2:

What kind of idiot would submit his trading system to perfect strangers to test for him? :p
More...

I'm thinking that if they can't backtest their own ideas then their 'system' will probably won't be any good anyway :) The guys who run that business are very smart he he :D
 
Quote from ProfLogic:

I agree with what you say but damn Jack, is it possible to condense your thought process a bit?

To condense the FOMC comment from my standpoint and experience.

There was a group of us watching the ES on both slower fractal and faster fractal charts before the announcement. The slower fractal showed us that price was still going up with strength. The faster fractal showed us that price was about to retrace.

Just prior to the announcement a short triggered on the faster fractal. It created a nice profit pool, stopped, reversed, triggered a long and went back up breaching the previous high creating another profit pool long.

All the while the slower fractal showed that particular move/retracement as a simple minor oscillation in the continued move up. which confirmed a short term top itself later that day.
More...

Your synopsis is great.

I was just pointing out the fact that automated trading is running about 3 to 5 trades out. To do that, I posted a codeable example on a boolean level that is freshman level coding.

You and I both see that it drew flies well enough this time to have the trading approach you and I use challenged by a thrid party deal.

The challenger can get the third party to do the work so he, the challenger, can see what is what.
 
Quote from Jerry030:

Jack,

Thanks for the reply, but I think we trade in different dimensions as I still don't follow what you are saying.

It's not relevant to what I do so don't bother responding further.

Jerry030
More...

It has been clear that we come at the mechanical trading from different viewpoints.

For me it is a good idea to know what you are doing. So I do. I agree that what I do doesn't fit at all with your efforts. You may not take on "news" trade for example. For me, every minute of RTH is a time when money can be made.

I'll excuse my self from responding to you. I believe that you are doing a lot of work in your area of interest.
 
Jack,

I must admit, when there isn't much news/earnings to trade off of I do trade the "trend". I sometimes use TL channels similar to what you use. However I feel the best way to trade a trend is to use a simple moving average.

TLs are highly subjective - given any chart any trader can draw up to 20 RTLs and 20 LTLs - but which one to actually trade off of? That's all highly subjective.

A SMA, on the otherhand is very objective - go long above SMA and go short below it. This strategy obviously backtests very poorly if you take every signal. Thus its takes a pro trader to filter out the noise and sit it out.
 
Quote from kut2k2:

What kind of idiot would submit his trading system to perfect strangers to test for him? :p
More...

These people do not want a trading system to test.

They just test things like scripts. They have little capacity for handling systems. Surfer chose them because he is on that level of computer efforts. He wants these guys to be his third party in a challenge because he can't handle something like using a system and testing it himself.

I did this once before regarding a print. the print ws challenged and the challenger said to send it to a third party to verify.

That happened by FED EX. It was verified and the third party gave a 10% discount on commissions to anyone who was using the approach.

Here we are simply on a script level . People are using scripts for this all over the world presently and it is all freeware at this time since so many people have written script for so many different platforms.

This is the 00's and not the 80's.

The Paris based financial LINUX effort used this stuff many years ago, probably before ET existed.

This situation with surfer is one where he hasn't caught on to much of anything in the computer world.

For darn sure if these guys do the job Surfer is requesting, then I'm sure surfer will make public all the effort of this outfit so it is in the public domain and anyone can use it.

He has a job cut out for himself; all I am doing is getting the testing done on what I do.

For the example, there is stuff out there on a similar FOMC. It has been out there so long that it was before the e mini's and it was 900 points bagged in an hour and 20 minutes on multiple DYXX contracts.

Surfer hasn't been around for very long.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top