Why do I see "Trends" in Randomly Generated Data?

Quote from Kevin Schmit:

IEEE apparently had the same idea you did:

http://mlsp2008.conwiz.dk/index.php?id=43

I don't have particularly high hopes for the contest, but I
encourage you and other ET modelers to submit entries.
More...

Kevin,

Considiering that you have to provide the full operational code (see below from their rules) for the system, I would agree.

You'll get a nice range of academics but anyone who has invested significant effort into a propritary approach that enjoys significant returns in not likely to make it public domain for the bragging rights.

That is why my suggestion is restricted to results only, with any disclosure of mehod optional.

Jerry030
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from IEEE
Submission: A successful submission consists of (1) a list of names of the researchers involved, (2) the name(s) of the host institutions of the researchers, (3) a 1-3 paragraph description of the approach used, and (4) Matlab code, myFunction.m, which should function correctly when called by the testing code (found above), should not read from or write to any drive, should not try to access the internet, it must finish running in a reasonable time (on the order of minutes), and must consist of only regular uncompiled Matlab code (P-code, mex files, and compiled code are, e.g., forbidden).
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Quote from Kevin Schmit:

IEEE apparently had the same idea you did:

http://mlsp2008.conwiz.dk/index.php?id=43

I don't have particularly high hopes for the contest, but I
encourage you and other ET modelers to submit entries.
More...
Did those guys account for stock splits in their data? :D

I can see it now: "Oh no, my stock price just dropped in half! I gotta sell! I gotta short sell!!" LMAO
 
Quote from Jerry030:

It does prove that it's not too difficult to find a perspective for observation that gives evidence to support a conclusion.

I'm sure observational evidence in the Middle Ages bolstered the theory that the Earth is flat. In fact when I look at the window it appears to be very flat. I can email you the picture if you like and you can compare it to what you see out your window. If we get enough pictures from enough people we may be able to prove that the Earth is flat as we can’t see any evidence to the contrary….until we get to about 35,000 feet on our next airline trip. Then very precise measurements will show it to be obviously curved! Amazing what a change in the location of the observer will do!

When Magellan conducted an actual experiment on the Flat Earth Theory by sailing around the Earth in the 1500's the theory lost many, but not all supporters.


Here is a link to the Flat Earth Society home page:

http://www.alaska.net/~clund/e_djublonskopf/Flatearthsociety.htm


Jerry030
More...

Magellan passage looks flat to me (see attached).

Also note the wake has an abrupt jog. The tidal currents in the passage are really incredible. Must be a random thingy.

I had to reduce this shot rom 1.34m to 40k to be able to attach it in ET.

We had breezes from the west that ran 40 knots. The four passages I have sailed include Magellan, North Beagle, Drake and Antarctic; most have some ice in the Summer.
 

Attachments

Warren Buffett and all value investors assume random underlying yet make a ton of money.

At the opposite extreme, Jim Simons and all quants assume random underlying yet make a ton of money.

Every market making firm assumes a random underlying and yet makes a ton of money.

The bottom line, is that assuming a random underlying doesn't mean you cannot make a ton of money. All it means is that you have to be careful that you're not being fooled by randomness because sooner or later you will have to face reality after your 'edge' disappears.
 
Quote from Rahula:

Warren Buffett and all value investors assume random underlying yet make a ton of money.

At the opposite extreme, Jim Simons and all quants assume random underlying yet make a ton of money.

Every market making firm assumes a random underlying and yet makes a ton of money.

The bottom line, is that assuming a random underlying doesn't mean you cannot make a ton of money. All it means is that you have to be careful that you're not being fooled by randomness because sooner or later you will have to face reality after your 'edge' disappears.
More...

Perfect statement! Right on the money! Crystal Clear!
 
Quote from kut2k2:

Did those guys account for stock splits in their data? :D

I can see it now: "Oh no, my stock price just dropped in half! I gotta sell! I gotta short sell!!" LMAO
More...

Shhh...don't let them about your fantastic discovery that stocks split so we can have a real laugh.

I'm sure nobody outside of ET has heard of it. Perhaps one of the brilliant traders here, like yourself, could get a consulting fee from IEEE to advise them that stocks split, delist, etc. Boy will they be surprised!!!!

he-he-ha-ha-ho-ho
 
Quote from jack hershey:

Magellan passage looks flat to me (see attached).

Also note the wake has an abrupt jog. The tidal currents in the passage are really incredible. Must be a random thingy.

I had to reduce this shot rom 1.34m to 40k to be able to attach it in ET.

We had breezes from the west that ran 40 knots. The four passages I have sailed include Magellan, North Beagle, Drake and Antarctic; most have some ice in the Summer.
More...

Jack,

There you have it!!!
The Earth is flat.
Pictures (and graphs never lie)

Do you want to call up NASA to let them know they can save all that rocket fuel needed to launch the Space Shuttle simply by finding the edge of the Earth and pushing it off into space?

Jerry030
 
Quote from Jerry030:

Shhh...don't let them about your fantastic discovery that stocks split so we can have a real laugh.

I'm sure nobody outside of ET has heard of it. Perhaps one of the brilliant traders here, like yourself, could get a consulting fee from IEEE to advise them that stocks split, delist, etc. Boy will they be surprised!!!!

he-he-ha-ha-ho-ho
More...
Did you look at the data? If there's something in there to account for stock splits, I apologize. If, as I suspect, there's not, you should.
 
Quote from Kevin Schmit:

IEEE apparently had the same idea you did:

http://mlsp2008.conwiz.dk/index.php?id=43

I don't have particularly high hopes for the contest, but I
encourage you and other ET modelers to submit entries.
More...

I'm an EE and graduated in '55. I was a member and subsribed to the Proceedings for a while.

Is this the first year that they have done this contest oriented thing? I know the membership is probably oriented to electronics and maybe programming using electronics.

By not using good data and not relating to markets it seems that they are judging something like coding quality by using an output of the coding effort instead of criteria for using a type of code for an application.

The scope of this common effort by members also looks like it prohibits a lot of the common functions of computers.

I am curious as to why the people doing this did not seek information on the application they are proposing that members focus upon.

I can see that there is going to be a meeting. Is there any connection to this contest and the topics that will be presented at the meeting?

Are there any professional/amateur meetings that are held anywhere where people who have been to school in electronics/programming get together to exchange intellectual presentations on financial matters or investing/trading?

TIA
 
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