Why do I see "Trends" in Randomly Generated Data?

Quote from Jerry030:

I don't have time to actually run this for you but I'll guess that somewhere between 200 and 2000 observations would give you some good confidence levels, depending on how you structure what you want to prove and the level of confidence required.

Similar work in pharmaceutical and consumer testing uses about this number of subjects. A recent consumer testing study on weight loss diets where I did the IT consulting but not the statistics had 460 subjects. This was enough to support a claim of efficacy with the FDA.

For Phase III trials most pharmaceutical companies want several thousand subjects as they have a large liability when a drug goes bad and they get a class action lawsuit.
More...


Some good input by different people in this thread, please continue :)
 
man sometimes I wonder why I even post here. we have one guy saying he was one of einsteins students and taught in his zurich classroom. another guy is posting well known research by andrew lo of mit which is inconclusive at best.

delusions run deep.... keeps the market machine well oiled....


surf
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

man sometimes I wonder why I even post here. we have one guy saying he was one of einsteins students and taught in his zurich classroom. another guy is posting well known research by andrew lo of mit which is inconclusive at best.

delusions run deep.... keeps the market machine well oiled....


surf
More...

Do you have the skill to post something conclusive or offer a useful concrete suggestion or are you limited in skill to dismissive remarks only.

If you don't like the thread I vote that you be permitted to leave it.

All in favor?


Jerry030
 
Quote from Jerry030:

Do you have the skill to post something conclusive or offer a useful concrete suggestion or are you limited in skill to dismissive remarks only.

If you don't like the thread I vote that you be permitted to leave it.

All in favor?


Jerry030
More...


:D


I have met Dr. Lo and am friends with many other quants and top money managers. I have spoken with and interviewed many of the top financial minds of the 21st century for my previous website and yahoo finance. Plus I have traded both as a hobby and professionally at times since 1990. Plus my associates have direct experience with 100's of traders who claim to have had edges via TA methods--- ONLY ONE was able to perform and it wasn't via TA.

Everything you have used as defense of your belief has been addressed and dismissed many times in the past. these are my conclusions reached thus far on this journey...

There is edge, one CAN make money in the market, but this has nothing to do if the market is random or not.

surf


ps. maestro speaks the truth here,as far as i can tell. i would suggest listening to him and reading " equity markets in action" for better understanding of how markets really work.
 
Perhaps this will inspire more discussions...

Here's a great little calculator for Texas Hold Them... Given your two cards and/or 3-5 open cards on the table and number of players, it simulates poker hands up to 1 million times and gives out the probability of your hands being better than other players... So with that information, you can make an educated estimate of how much you should bet for a given situation....
 
Quote from dtrader98:

http://seneca.fis.ucm.es/parr/
see recent papers...


Maestro, were you able to translate this to markets? It requires a pretty specific setup of the relative probabilities of the b events, if I interpret properly.
More...

It's quite easy, actually. I have posted my paper early in this thread. It sheds some light on it.
 
Quote from chinook:

Perhaps this will inspire more discussions...

Here's a great little calculator for Texas Hold Them... Given your two cards and/or 3-5 open cards on the table and number of players, it simulates poker hands up to 1 million times and gives out the probability of your hands being better than other players... So with that information, you can make an educated estimate of how much you should bet for a given situation....
More...

You would be surprised to know how close you are to one of our most reliable strategies. The only difference is that a Poker game has a fixed probabilities distribution, where the markets do not.
 
Quote from MAESTRO:

You would be surprised to know how close you are to one of our most reliable strategies. The only difference is that a Poker game has a fixed probabilities distribution, where the markets do not.
More...

Yes, I think 'the answer' lies in that ;) I'm in the process of figuring out how to calculate the odds in my case.
 
Quote from chinook:

Yes, I think 'the answer' lies in that ;) I'm in the process of figuring out how to calculate the odds in my case.
More...

Good for you! I believe you will succeed! Good luck! The answer is very simple and very reliable! Trust me!
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top