yes.
Why do I see "Trends" in Randomly Generated Data?
- Thread starter Rahula
- Start date
yes.
I can define the trend of a chart on the exact contract or share that triggers it. One doesn't trade "trend" though. One trades price as it moves along the trend. Trends are only useful to give one a view of the particular strength of the chart they are trading.
Yes there is but you have to be able to define "Trend" first. No definition, no predictability advantage.
Trends do exist in the present.
Example: Wii's are an ongoing trend, both in the past and present. Buy a Wii in a store today (if you can find one) and you will sell it for a profit on eBay tomorrow.
This is a silly example not related to the market but an example none the less.
maestro maestro maestro
you are a fool.
you see I am a collector of information, information is my business, in time I collected truly vast libraries on ALL human and non human topics
you said you do 22.3 %
I'll make this short and sweet for you
I do 100 % in 2 months, liquidity is my problem, thus I had to move large part to FX
been at it for 8 years now
will your mathematical little mind now classify me as "lucky"
you disappoint me, I seek my equal but alas I am alone
you are a fool.
you see I am a collector of information, information is my business, in time I collected truly vast libraries on ALL human and non human topics
you said you do 22.3 %
I'll make this short and sweet for you
I do 100 % in 2 months, liquidity is my problem, thus I had to move large part to FX
been at it for 8 years now
will your mathematical little mind now classify me as "lucky"
you disappoint me, I seek my equal but alas I am alone
Maestro, I had the same views about technical analysis in the past until I paid more attention to the possibility that anomalies do exist and can give rise to patterns one can use to make money. Michael Harris wrote an article back in Sep. 2002 where he used a program to find price patterns in the Qs. He came back in Sep. of last year to check the performance of the original 2002 patterns and they were all found profitable, no exceptions. I ordered a copy of the magazine issue with his paper just to make sure this was not a hoax and then used his program to confirm his fundings.
OK, maybe you will come back and say that if one waits long enough these patterns will fade away but for five years they have made money.
Here is the link to the article:
http://www.tradingpatterns.com/About_Us/articles/article3/article3.html
Ron
Irrelevant division you made. People don't trade price/volatility but price and as MIT researchers have shown there is a hidden order in the markets that obeys a power law:
http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2003/powerlaw.html
Bill
Quote from eusdaiki:
If you flip that coin 1,000,000,000,000 times and it lands on heads every single time... You probably have a game that's being manipulated.
Even after 100 tosses you can reach that conclusion with a high probability. Look at Chernoff's inequality. If the bias is 0.7 to 0.3 for example. you need about 100 tosses to be 99.95% sure there is indeed a bias of that size, I'm just lazy to do the calculation and apologize if it's somewhat off.
Bill
Hey Bill, one quote toward the bottom still tickles my funny bone after all these years.
"{"For most science, you have to create the data. But here was a complex system where the data was just sitting there," he said.
Gabaix and the BU research team analyzed about 100 million transactions from the world financial markets--all the transactions from 1994-96--and discovered the mathematical pattern hidden in the data.}"
I looked at some of their work and was impressed with the content but the foundation of how they tested all of that data was fundamentally flawed. Dig deeper and see if you can figure it out.
I will say that if their environment had been stabilized their conclusions would have been even more astounding.
Can you elaborate why the way of testing was fundamentally flawed ?