Is it technical analysis? Then it all comes to intuition you have to watch how patterns play out a lot to devise a strategy then
Why do i keep buying at the wrong time?
- Thread starter mute9003
- Start date
You don't need to understand why and probably you will never understand why. Instead, focus on how. How is price and the market generally moving most of the time? How can you exploit it? Where's the good entries? Where's the bad entries? For example, from a quick look at your chart it seems like it's trading near recent highs. That's generally not a good low-risk entry on a long trade.
Anyway, I think you're approaching it correctly by asking questions and trying to find answers to them.
You're only showing us one single chart/scenario. Maybe if you back-tested the same pattern with a sample size of 50 you'd have some data to back you. In summary, it's impossible to either validate or invalidate your entry thesis here based on a sample size of n = 1.
Personally, I would not have placed a trade using a single chart like you posted as it lacks a lot of context:
- Instrument/ticker (they all move differently)
- Time of day
- Day of week and where we're at in the weekly cycle
- Higher TF trend/range
- Prior day ranges
And a lot of other stuff that helps to add context.
Maybe if you're a pure scalper only looking for a few ticks (may not be a good idea) you can be successful with only one single chart. I don't do that, so I wouldn't know.
You're also making the assumption that volume matters. Does it? Back-test and explore further that idea. Don't believe what you're told (generally a good idea to learn on your own and question everything).
Some of you guys overcomplicate all of this.
I think that many of you got hung up on emulating what other traders are doing with the candlestick charts when you don't really know what you are doing.
I don't bother with much of that besides giving a quick glance at what happened in recent days.
I consider the historical prices of the stock to determine the (low) price I want to buy.
If I am in a trade that is increasing rapidly, then I hang in there, watching the ticker until I decide to exit.
I have some other operations, but that is all I can say.
You might do better if you just keep it simple, because it's not complicated at all.
I think that many of you got hung up on emulating what other traders are doing with the candlestick charts when you don't really know what you are doing.
I don't bother with much of that besides giving a quick glance at what happened in recent days.
I consider the historical prices of the stock to determine the (low) price I want to buy.
If I am in a trade that is increasing rapidly, then I hang in there, watching the ticker until I decide to exit.
I have some other operations, but that is all I can say.
You might do better if you just keep it simple, because it's not complicated at all.
What is the translation of that? In simple terms?
Also interested in the translation,in reference to trading,if you have the time.
Nice quote.
There is your problem, you are trying to trade by what you see, instead of what is actually happening.
Market data is non-stationary, and can be modeled as pink noise. In the pink noise model, the power in the cycle content of the data increases at 6dB per octave. This increase in power spectral density is what John Ehlers calls spectral dilation, and it distorts many traditional TA indicators.
What to do about it? Make the data stationary by whitening it. Read "Whiter is Brighter."
What to do about it? Make the data stationary by whitening it. Read "Whiter is Brighter."
There are so many misleading “insights” in some of the replies that I don’t know whether I should laugh or cry. 
The first problem is that the OP was trading $0.45 stock (NVOS). Penny stocks don’t pattern well, there are no institutions in such stocks, and most of the time it’s just a pump and dump.
The second problem is that he went long on a day when the stock already almost tripled in price.
The third problem is that he’s trying to get insights here on ET, and perhaps half of the replies are misguiding, bit like a blind leading the blind.
For example, suggestion by @wxytrader to use EW and fibs on the intraday chart of this penny stock is probably the most hilarious thing I’ve ever read on this forum. Even without knowing that it was a penny stock, one could clearly see the huge wide range bars in comparison the the bars in the previous day.
Honestly, should I laugh or cry???
The first problem is that the OP was trading $0.45 stock (NVOS). Penny stocks don’t pattern well, there are no institutions in such stocks, and most of the time it’s just a pump and dump.
The second problem is that he went long on a day when the stock already almost tripled in price.
The third problem is that he’s trying to get insights here on ET, and perhaps half of the replies are misguiding, bit like a blind leading the blind.
For example, suggestion by @wxytrader to use EW and fibs on the intraday chart of this penny stock is probably the most hilarious thing I’ve ever read on this forum. Even without knowing that it was a penny stock, one could clearly see the huge wide range bars in comparison the the bars in the previous day.
Honestly, should I laugh or cry???
There are so many misleading “insights” in some of the replies that I don’t know whether I should laugh or cry.
The first problem is that the OP was trading $0.45 stock (NVOS). Penny stocks don’t pattern well, there are no institutions in such stocks, and most of the time it’s just a pump and dump.
The second problem is that he went long on a day when the stock already almost tripled in price.
The third problem is that he’s trying to get insights here on ET, and perhaps half of the replies are misguiding, bit like a blind leading the blind.
For example, suggestion by @wxytrader to use EW and fibs on the intraday chart of this penny stock is probably the most hilarious thing I’ve ever read on this forum. Even without knowing that it was a penny stock, one could clearly see the huge wide range bars in comparison the the bars in the previous day.
Honestly, should I laugh or cry???
Honestly it's outright pointless to ask after the fact anyway. People drawing their pretty lines and annotations like, yup, that's what I would do. See it works!