Why do folks reveal Profitable Strategies, are they NUTS?

[austinp]

<b>traderdragon2</b>

Any individual who accquires a methodology always, always tweaks it some. Different timeframe chart, different indicators, different markets... no one copies a method approach strictly.

Also, on any given day there are several potential trade entries. Some traders miss = sleep thru the early ones. Some traders quit before the later entries come along. Some traders enter a bit late, some a tad early on the signal.

The human element of trading any method keeps it from being duplicated verbatim. Also, there will never be any method accepted & applied by the vast majority. If there were, Woodies CCI stuff would certainly have been saturated long ago. Instead, it is a textbook example of method tools adopted & molded to infinite degrees by the masses.

Hope this explanation helps :>)

 

[traderdragon2]

I understand what your saying, but I still disagree.


From a stasitical perspective, hmmm, how can I describe this.


Lets use some set theory.

Imagine a grid that represents all the shares which are mispriced at any given moment in time. Say the grid is 100x100 squares.

Now imagine a mechanical system that has "perfectly" identified 20 blocks of the above grid and scoops up shares from those 20 blocks whenever a signal is given. These 20 blocks represent every single share that is mispriced. There is no profit to be made from shares outside of these 20 blocks.

Obviously, those 20 blocks will become fully saturated at some point in time as the traders account grows and the equity surpases what those 20 blocks can carry. The mechanical system is like a guided missle which perfectly hits the 20 blocks every single time.

Now, how would things look like for a non-mechanical system which targets these same 20 blocks? Since human flaws are brought into the equation, each human cannot perfectly hit these 20 blocks while trading. So instead of a guided missle perfectly hitting them, each human shoots at the grid with a shotgun that has "loose spread". They may hit 50% of those 20 blocks, or 70% of them, but not 100% like the mechanical system, so this leaves some "un hit" blocks available.

But what happens if 1 million humans all aim at those 20 squares and pull the trigger at once??? All 20 squares will mostly likely be hit, and several times over.

Therefore, if you throw enough traders at a system, eventually, their cumulative effort, although not perfect individually, will get full coverage when combined, and no edge will be left. Their "shower of shot gun pellets" will in fact nail the shit out of that edge.

Therefore, giving away a mechanical system is really stupid, because saturation happens instantly, but giving away a discretionary system is also stupid, it just takes a few more people and a little bit more time to fully obliterate it.

I have several systems that I predict I will fully saturate in the future and then my Equity cuve will start going flat unless I can find some more systems.

If I want to see it go flat faster, I just gotta tell people my rules. Fat chance.

Quote from austinp:

<b>traderdragon2</b>

Any individual who accquires a methodology always, always tweaks it some. Different timeframe chart, different indicators, different markets... no one copies a method approach strictly.

Also, on any given day there are several potential trade entries. Some traders miss = sleep thru the early ones. Some traders quit before the later entries come along. Some traders enter a bit late, some a tad early on the signal.

The human element of trading any method keeps it from being duplicated verbatim. Also, there will never be any method accepted & applied by the vast majority. If there were, Woodies CCI stuff would certainly have been saturated long ago. Instead, it is a textbook example of method tools adopted & molded to infinite degrees by the masses.

Hope this explanation helps :>)

 

[kut2k2]

Quote from cdowis:

I suggest that you read Van Tharp, "Trade your way to Financial Freedom". Talks about how to develop a successful trading system.

For example, the entry is the least important part of a system. He demonstrates how you can use a random entry and still make money.

Oh brother.

If somebody told you that your lungs were the least important organ among your lungs, heart and brain, would you agree to a lung removal operation?

Think for yourself, not out of a cookbook.

There is no "least imporant" leg of a three-leg stool, and there is no "least important" part of a trading strategy consisting of entry, exit and position sizing.

Seriously, anybody who can't get this should run, not walk, away from trading.

 

[austinp]

<i>"But what happens if 1 million humans all aim at those 20 squares and pull the trigger at once??? All 20 squares will mostly likely be hit, and several times over."</i>

TD... that's exactly the point. There will never be enough people using the same approach in a liquid market to negate it.

Today the ER covered a total 7pt range from low to high. It went sideways thru most of that. Every ER trader who was active today pretty much saw the same points of relevance on its chart. Not like there was expansive real estate for everyone to see something different along the way.

Some of us made money, some did not... most of us traded near the same key action points on the chart.

I completely understand your systematic thinking... that was once my exact-same train of thought. I can promise you that basic human nature itself negates the possibility of saturation where any amount of discretion exists.

 

[tuktuk]

Even from same computer if trades are fired together - they will be executed at diff price - let alone 20 M people.

But the posted systems on forums are junk anyway!

 

[HoundDogOne]

Quote from Trader28Lite:

The question is flawed, a profitable strategy is 5% of trading, giving it away doesn't mean it will teach the other 95%

This is actually a very good answer.

Most people here just ** completely miss this **.

If you have a deep understanding of certain, correct KEY TRUTHS about the financial markets...
And the talent and training and drive to apply them properly...
You can develop endless profitable trading strategies.

To put it another way...
I could post a 10 page detailed description of my profitable trading approach...
And perhaps 2% of the people reading it could duplicate what I do...
And it would take 6-12 months to bring it up to speed.

But that gifted 2% doesn't need my help anyway.

Therefore...
A "profitable trading strategy" cannot be "revealed" to 98% of the people here.

 

[tuktuk]

Quote from HoundDogOne:

A "profitable trading strategy" cannot be "revealed" to 98% of the people here.

the single most valuable statement in this whole forum!

 

[WD40]

Quote from HoundDogOne:

This is actually a very good answer.

Most people here just ** completely miss this **.

If you have a deep understanding of certain, correct KEY TRUTHS about the financial markets...
And the talent and training and drive to apply them properly...
You can develop endless profitable trading strategies.

To put it another way...
I could post a 10 page detailed description of my profitable trading approach...
And perhaps 2% of the people reading it could duplicate what I do...
And it would take 6-12 months to bring it up to speed.

But that gifted 2% doesn't need my help anyway.

Therefore...
A "profitable trading strategy" cannot be "revealed" to 98% of the people here.

I can't agree with you more.

just as an example, recently in another thread, Arachnid made a quote to the effect that YM leads ES. Instead of learning how this profound secret works, the mass jumped into a barking frenzie to debate the plausibility of such an observation. TalkingHead even twisted the statement so that he can make a fist fight out of it. LOL.

 

[nkhoi]

Quote from Ripley:

..

**No Profitable Strategies are out there**

2 going on right now, the equity thread and golden arch thread, goden arch thread just fires of a buy signal.

 

[oxusmorouz]

By letting out profitable strategies, I guess the mentors want their students to think of strategies not though of, instead of wasting time with already discovered strategies. Most who let their strategies out are academicians who try to unlock another level in strategy based trading rather than traders who try to make profits.
This is my humble opinion