Why do 5% of Traders Win?

achilles28 · Mar 2, 2012

Quote from bhardy307:

About the job issue: go find yourself a seasonal position that lays you off in the winter. Do you have access to some kind of employment insurance in those off months?

That's what I did this past year. Worked from May to November, leaving me free to trade from November to May. I can also trade evening hours when I am working. During the off months, I am paid by the government. I will be doing this again this year, and then collecting parental leave since my wife is giving birth in July.

This takes a lot of pressure off of me during this learning process.

Oh great. Thank you. Another productive member of society...

Newbs collecting welfare so they can learn to trade....

achilles28 · Mar 2, 2012

Quote from Lucias:

Yes, I can predict the market and I'm willing to demonstrate it here, live, for a worthwhile and serious reward. I'm willing to make 100 directional trade calls in advance. The money would have to be put into an escrow, etc. I'm not wasting my time for anything less. But for sure, if Don Bright , black jack maverick, is up to it then sure (or any of the other well heeled sharks) anything is possible. Trust me, no one with a half a brain will challenge my abilities.

You can hit the vast majority of directional calls (out of 100), but don't have a measly 10K to fund your account...? Ever heard of a credit card? Parents? Friends? Your piggy bank from mowing lawns last summer?

"well heeled sharks"

This is priceless. Keep it up, Lucias.

achilles28 · Mar 2, 2012

Quote from Lucias:

Trust me, I train to be one of the best in the game of zero sum trading...

Train? Like Rocky?

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oilfxpro · Mar 2, 2012

Quote from achilles28:

No, no. You're wrong. YOU GOT IT ALL WRONG.

Lucias knows some of the top guys at the biggest firms. A certain Wall Street market maker (don't ask him which one), offered to buy his C2 "crack pipe" algo for a cool 10K, but DR Steenerburger said given his unnatural talent could easily fetch 60K after making a couple minor tweaks (...like upping the Sharp ratio by a couple points.. and what not). There's a rumor going around that Traders Monthly plans to back Lucias in the next Robbins Cup! He'd blow away the competition, that I'm sure of

The world is wondering ,why if he is making so much from trading , he is hanging out his willy on c2 to give to noobs?Must be charitable crumbs for noobs.

achilles28 · Mar 2, 2012

^Truth be told, his strategy consists of 2 point targets and 12 POINT STOPS. The win rate is okay (at best) and only works with heavy size...Sure, there's some down months, but one guy off C2 made 10K? (we're not sure), before blowing out his account and jumping off a bridge. The algo draws on key "order flow insights" Lucias "explores" in his newsletters. Yes, actual subscribers who pay this guy for market advice...

cornix · Mar 2, 2012

Quote from achilles28:

^Truth be told, his strategy consists of 2 point targets and 12 POINT STOPS. The win rate is okay (at best) and only works with heavy size...Sure, there's some down months, but one guy off C2 made 10K? (we're not sure), before blowing out his account and jumping off a bridge. The algo draws on key "order flow insights" Lucias "explores" in his newsletters. Yes, actual subscribers who pay this guy for market advice...

Some people psychologically are unable to trade real money, they simple can't handle the uncertainty and stress.

Sometimes they become OK signal providers, because their analytical abilities are fine.

But most systems are like you said, something similar to 2 point target, 12 point stop... Not ideal trading system in my view.

achilles28 · Mar 2, 2012

Quote from cornixforex:

Some people psychologically are unable to trade real money, they simple can't handle the uncertainty and stress.

Sometimes they become OK signal providers, because their analytical abilities are fine.

But most systems are like you said, something similar to 2 point target, 12 point stop... Not ideal trading system in my view.

Ideal....you're being kind

The 7:1 risk:reward strategies are a total newb approach. It's the hail mary of system design: (I have no idea what direction the market is headed but i want to trade with the big boys so I'll flip a coin, leave a damn wide stop and call it trading!).

cornix · Mar 2, 2012

Quote from achilles28:

Ideal....you're being kind The 7:1 risk:reward strategies are a total newb approach. It's the hail mary of system design: (I have no idea what direction the market is headed but i want to trade with the big boys so I'll flip a coin, leave a damn wide stop and call it trading!).

Yes, personally I don't even enter when likely reward is smaller than the risk.

See no real reason to take big risk for a small reward, maybe if only really bad timing and poor entries are the case.

achilles28 · Mar 2, 2012

Sure, it happens the odd time. Market order, bad fill, fast market etc. Usually if price jumps too far away from a logical stop and reverse point, it's a bad trade. If it's volatile, well, that's another story.

Brass · Mar 2, 2012

Quote from cornixforex:

I know, you asked NoD, but this matter is interesting, so I decided to join the discussion.

Levels are basically the only 100% objective points on chart, where we know for sure, that supply/demand balance changed.

Levels on big charts (daily+) for sure are watched by many eyes, including eyes of someone moving big money.

Less so intraday levels, but that's still the case.

And final note: for me personally, price action around level is the key factor, not the level itself.

I would agree with your final point, which seems to be somewhat inconsistent with your narrative preceding it. And I would go one step further, in my own case, and suggest that the nature of immediately price action itself generally trumps any "levels."