Never understood these claims and I got no responses in my other HFT ES thread. So how is this supposed to happen? ES is tracking the SPX. The SPX is tracking a basket of 500 stocks. The SPX and ES move in lock step, up to tiny noise at the few seconds timeframe. So HFT is supposed to push ES around? But ES tracks the 500 stock basket. The only way HFT could push ES around is if the institutions running HFT are simultaneously buying and selling hundreds of millions of shares of the S&P 500 stocks. Not sure if that is really happening.
Why do 5% of Traders Win?
- Thread starter oldtime
- Start date
Never understood these claims and I got no responses in my other HFT ES thread. So how is this supposed to happen? ES is tracking the SPX. The SPX is tracking a basket of 500 stocks. The SPX and ES move in lock step, up to tiny noise at the few seconds timeframe. So HFT is supposed to push ES around? But ES tracks the 500 stock basket. The only way HFT could push ES around is if the institutions running HFT are simultaneously buying and selling hundreds of millions of shares of the S&P 500 stocks. Not sure if that is really happening.
You got it other way.. the HFT are playing the institutions. So, when the institutions go to put on an order, the volume isn't there and the market rips several ticks giving them bad fill.
I've seen pattern up to 6 ticks that looks like gaming. I call them flurries, some might call them 'sweeps' they sweep the market 4-6 ticks before immediately reversing it.
I share in my order flow instruction, some other patterns such as cancellation patterns which are primarily due to liquidity due to crowd reactions.
I've seen pattern up to 6 ticks that looks like gaming. I call them flurries, some might call them 'sweeps' they sweep the market 4-6 ticks before immediately reversing it.
I share in my order flow instruction, some other patterns such as cancellation patterns which are primarily due to liquidity due to crowd reactions.
Given the number of hours I put into this, I think I can do it in half the time.
I'd love someone on the "inside" to explain exactly how "they" do all this stuff. I can understand head fakes during low volume consolidation (lunchtime and after hours), but during active RTH, you've got so many large professional market participants (mutual fund managers, hedge fund and investment bank traders, including HFT systems fighting each other for fractions of cents) all of whom have different time lines and strategies. Who is this "they" that hunts the stops of small retail traders in a attempt to ruin their lives?
I will share my order flow analysis using a trade today not far from the oil pit close when a lot of good action resumes.
As usual, I reach the point I'm chewing my leg off during consolidation and step away for lunch. I return to see I missed a fantastic move just moments after I left, which was signaled beautifully and resulted in a move just shy of a full point ($1000/car) from the confirmed entry trigger.
Those in the 95% losing camp look at that and do one of the following:
1) Curse themselves for being so unlucky, this ALWAYS happens to them, and go pour a glass of vodka.
2) Initiate a long position because it dropped so much it's "due" to go back up
Those in the 5% winning camp look at that, immediately decide where and how to get short, and eyeball a measured move target zone:
Those in the 95% losing camp look at that and do one of the following:
1) Curse themselves for being so unlucky, this ALWAYS happens to them, and go pour a glass of vodka.
2) Initiate a long position because it dropped so much it's "due" to go back up
Those in the 5% winning camp look at that, immediately decide where and how to get short, and eyeball a measured move target zone:
By following the herd (the big players who move price significantly), I catch a very nice second leg of profit.
No vodka necessary
So ask yourself what you would've done if you returned from a break to see the price action on the first chart I posted.
Did it seem difficult to consider a short position? Did price seem "too low"?
Th market rewards what is difficult.
No vodka necessary
So ask yourself what you would've done if you returned from a break to see the price action on the first chart I posted.
Did it seem difficult to consider a short position? Did price seem "too low"?
Th market rewards what is difficult.
Admittedly, I would have avoided that trade all together. As far as I am concerned, those are 50/50 trades. I have been bitten too many times taking the trade you just took.
My rule is that if I missed it, I missed it. Be patient; wait for the next opportunity. But, I guess you're more successful than me, so what do I know?
Quote from bhardy307:
Admittedly, I would have avoided that trade all together. As far as I am concerned, those are 50/50 trades. I have been bitten too many times taking the trade you just took.
My rule is that if I missed it, I missed it. Be patient; wait for the next opportunity. But, I guess you're more successful than me, so what do I know?
Avoiding the trade altogether is also a winner's strategy
