Why do 5% of Traders Win?

[SimpleTrades]

Lucias,

"So if NoDoji has done this successfully for about 3-4 years, she should have oh about.. I don't know 4-5 million dollars."

This is not what she is stating. She is stating that she is drawing an INCOME of $90,000. This means that she is regularly withdrawing money from her account. She is NOT COMPOUNDING at at a rate of 900%.

I must admit that 3.5%/day does sound high, but I've only been at this for less than a year.

It wouldn't surprise me if she actually does better than 900%, but tucks away a percentage of that in savings. This way, if she blows out her account she draws from her savings and starts again.

 

[ExchangeBonds]

Her claims are not ridiculous. I'm not quite sure why she has never bumped up her size to even 2-3 contracts. I don't think that would ruin her edge, but I guess she is very content where she is.

Remember every oil contract is 100 barrels of oil. That means at the current price, the contract is worth over $106,000. People who talk about percentages of ROI on their account like it means something have no clue what futures are about. The amount of leverage available easily allows you to create enormous percentage gains of your account. Just look at any futures contracts specifications. That is the amount of money you are controlling, not your account. Your account money is the margin/collateral you give the broker to trade.

 

[Hooti]

Ammo is rt with his observations on sim vs live.

I am a trained scientist, with an advanced degree. Worked for 5 years with a group of pathologists... that's a detective science... which is an added layer of perspective and attitude.

I was thinking, hey I'm a scientist, so had a question and recently set up an experiment in which I set up a number of trades over a week in sim, then repeated the same setups & trade management over a week with real money. Compaired the same number of trades. The market looked similar for all practical purposes for both weeks.

In sim I nailed 9 out of 10. Hot stuff!
With real money, for every one win I had two losses.

Among other things, I conclude I have more work to do, and that there is hope! Keep improving my read of the market. My trading rules are good enough, keep improving them too. It's sticking to it, etc., that's the rub.

 

[SimpleTrades]

Quote from ExchangeBonds:

Her claims are not ridiculous. I'm not quite sure why she has never bumped up her size to even 2-3 contracts. I don't think that would ruin her edge, but I guess she is very content where she is.

Remember every oil contract is 100 barrels of oil. That means at the current price, the contract is worth over $106,000. People who talk about percentages of ROI on their account like it means something have no clue what futures are about. The amount of leverage available easily allows you to create enormous percentage gains of your account. Just look at any futures contracts specifications. That is the amount of money you are controlling, not your account. Your account money is the margin/collateral you give the broker to trade.

Can't speak for NoD, but with my broker, a one cent change in the price of oil give me/costs me $1. Just glancing at this, I see oil's price ranging about $1.5 in a day. That's a $150 range using 1 contract. I could probably pull $75/day out of that. An experienced person, I can see pulling $250 to $300/day.

 

[ExchangeBonds]

Quote from bhardy307:

Can't speak for NoD, but with my broker, a one cent change in the price of oil give me/costs me $1. Just glancing at this, I see oil's price ranging about $1.5 in a day. That's a $150 range using 1 contract. I could probably pull $75/day out of that. An experienced person, I can see pulling $250 to $300/day.

Your broker isn't a futures broker. Futures contracts are so much larger than anything you are trading atm. Every cent in oil is worth $10 for a normal oil contract. If you could pull 250-300 a day with 1 of your contracts, then I would say prove it.

 

[SimpleTrades]

Quote from ExchangeBonds:

Your broker isn't a futures broker. Futures contracts are so much larger than anything you are trading atm. Every cent in oil is worth $10 for a normal oil contract. If you could pull 250-300 a day with 1 of your contracts, then I would say prove it.

LOL, fair enough. I certainly can't do that! This is actually a CFD.

Didn't Jack H. claim he could get 3x the price range in a day?

 

[emg]

Here is an interesting article:


http://www.thetexanonline.com/2011/05/08/why-play-a-losing-game-high-frequency-trading/


Why play a losing game: High Frequency Trading


Within the last decade, advanced computers have allowed extremely high volume HFT to become a profitable part of financial firms both big and small. Companies that have invested in HFT technology have been rewarded, but for those who have not – including small investors – HFT is neither a plausible or cost-efficient investment approach at this point in time.





Higher Education is the key to become a successful trader!


http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=236628





HFT will blow small traders away.



More than 90% of small traders lose! They just lose!


Reload that small accounts. RELOAD and LOSE!

 

[ssrrkk]

HFT will blow small traders away.

the HFT boogeymen are out to get you! they're everywhere and you can't escape them!!

 

[SimpleTrades]

Quote from ExchangeBonds:

Your broker isn't a futures broker. Futures contracts are so much larger than anything you are trading atm. Every cent in oil is worth $10 for a normal oil contract. If you could pull 250-300 a day with 1 of your contracts, then I would say prove it.

However, that may explain why she limits herself to one contract. What is the margin requirement for a contract that size? With the CFD I could use ( I don't), this mini contract requires $100 of available margin. Extending that, a full size contract would require $1000. Oil can range several dollars/thousands in a day, so if she is only trading with a $10,000 account, more than 1 contract would blow her out pretty quickly.

 

[ExchangeBonds]

Quote from bhardy307:

However, that may explain why she limits herself to one contract. What is the margin requirement for a contract that size? With the CFD I could use ( I don't), this mini contract requires $100 of available margin. Extending that, a full size contract would require $1000. Oil can range several dollars/thousands in a day, so if she is only trading with a $10,000 account, more than 1 contract would blow her out pretty quickly.

To day trade oil, it is normally around 2k margin. Overnight margin I believe is around 6.5k off the top of my head. With her profitability, she could stash away another 10k in the account to be safe. I don't know her living situation of course, but I like taking the most I think I can take from the market without causing slippage while still being risk appropriate.