Why do 5% of Traders Win?

[Lucias]

bhardy... this is NOT true. Not absolutely true.. all my records should be treated as hypothetical and MOST of my gains are on the hypothetical only. However.. what you claim is NOT true either.

Facts

* I had a subscriber for approximately 3 months taking majority of my trades. I was traded at least an 50k-80k account. I know because I opened many cars up overnight which wouldn't have been possible otherwise. I didn't know he had signed up because I turned off the notifications but I had seen my orders go through and knew they were mine: don't ask how. I estimate that I made him around 12k over 3 months. This is an estimate. I asked him for a precise number but he didn't keep good records and couldn't answer me. I checked my results to his real money results on 2 days and his results were inline or better. He eventually quit. I would like to have known exactly how much he made but neither of us know.

* When I started my journal here, it was a real money account at NADEX. I think I said that. Sometimes I joke about trading paper because paper is dollars too.

* I have taken some real money trades on my systems.. just a couple with ES futures. This is provable. I have had also subs taking my trades with real money which is verifiable.

* It is true that I've only traded a micro account. It is true that I wish I had my gains last year in real money. That's all true..

Quote from bhardy307:

Lucias, with all due respect, you're trading a SIM account. I am aware of your diary. I follow it from time to time. Get busy with some real money and show yourself what you can REALLY do.

I've always traded with real money with the exception of a brief half day with a SWIFT copycat.

 

[SimpleTrades]

Quote from Lucias:

bhardy... this is NOT true. Not absolutely true.. all my records should be treated as hypothetical and MOST of my gains are on the hypothetical only. However.. what you claim is NOT true either.

Facts

* I had a subscriber for approximately 3 months taking majority of my trades. I was traded at least an 50k-80k account. I know because I opened many cars up overnight which wouldn't have been possible otherwise. I estimate that I made him around 12k over 3 months. This is an estimate. I asked him for a precise number but he didn't keep good records and couldn't answer me. I checked my results to his real money results on 2 days and his results were inline or better. He eventually quit. I would like to have known exactly how much he made but neither of us know.

* When I started my journal here, it was a real money account at NADEX. I think I said that. Sometimes I joke about trading paper because paper is dollars too.

* I have taken some real money trades on my systems.. just a couple with ES futures. This is provable. I have had also subs taking my trades with real money which is verifiable.

* It is true that I've only traded a micro account. It is true that I wish I had my gains last year in real money. That's all true..

Ok Lucias, but you're always talking so big. I think you're doing yourself a huge disservice.

Please reread my last post. I edited it.

 

[Lucias]

You have a fine sentiment. The appeal of the world cup is that someone can take 10k.. make 100% or 50% or whatever and if they win then they could potentially get enough subscribers/capital/press to really trade for a living. This is really what its about...

Most people who are really serious about the market find it is difficult to trade and hold down a job. Most want to go full time. Winning could make that a real possibility. Now if you already have access to capital or success then I admit it is not very important. There is also the glory of winning.. ;0

I would have enter this year and NOT traded as a competition but just traded normally. But I didn't have the capital.. again I will still enter (if funded) and if I win then I'm willing to invite whoever sponsors me on the stage... just PM if interested. It goes without saying this is extreme risk. I think it will be a tough year for a day trader too... (versus the trend systems)

PS: I believe this is the first time that 10k has been offered as a starting capital base. Also, I don't have any affiliation with the sponsors or anything like that. Likewise... I don't expect that winning would get any interest from the hedge funds as they typically require MILLIONS under management over many years even for consideration.

Quote from bhardy307:

Ok Lucias, but you're always talking so big. I think you're doing yourself a huge disservice.

Please reread my last post. I edited it.

 

[SimpleTrades]

Quote from Lucias:

There is also the glory of winning.. ;0

You will find in life that truly successful individuals at peace with themselves and with the world around them quietly feel victory within themselves.

The victory is internal, not external.

Quote from Lucias:

You have a fine sentiment. The appeal of the world cup is that someone can take 10k.. make 100% or 50%

I just took 2K and turned it into 4K, gradually, over a period of 3.5 months. It took more than 400 trades.

You don't get these returns by predicting the direction of the market. Its just good old fashioned hard work, grinding away at it.

--------------------------

About the job issue: go find yourself a seasonal position that lays you off in the winter. Do you have access to some kind of employment insurance in those off months?

That's what I did this past year. Worked from May to November, leaving me free to trade from November to May. I can also trade evening hours when I am working. During the off months, I am paid by the government. I will be doing this again this year, and then collecting parental leave since my wife is giving birth in July.

This takes a lot of pressure off of me during this learning process.

 

[wolfpacker]

Quote from Lucias:


Also... to NoDoji, again you may claim "but I don't see no reason to show my record". That's fine.. I can buy that. I can buy that but can I buy that there are no scalpers in the futures market willing to show their records? Can I buy that NO scalper making 90k per year wouldn't want to make the 500k-600k that could come from winning a World Cup? Can I buy? And can I buy that this has never happened in history? Can I buy that I'm one of the ONLY vendors who shows a record that is 3rd party? (Even if it is hypothetical).

I met some traders who had taken a vendors course. Told me they were making couple K per day scalping. I told him that I'd pay him or any of his friends for a record and I'd pay for training. Not one replied!! I do offer training because my record shows that I am among the best at least OF THOSE WHO HAVE RECORDS.

Maybe you're able to do it... it is true that all the people who've did this have claimed to trade 6e and crude. So, you might be on to something.. but even so, my logic stands.

Lucias,

I recognize and appreciate that you have the right not to believe what anyone says without a record. ET has unfortunately had its share of boasting wanna be's like every other place, so asking for a record of performance is understandable.

I can tell you that Nodoji was very modest in her ability.. I have seen her call entries and exits at will in CL day after day in a live chat room and I have seen her extract much more than what she modestly says is possible on most every occasion I have had the pleasure of witnessing.

I have never seen anyone come close to this in my days and would probably have said it was not possible until I heard it live with my own ears... I would have to say Nodoji is most likely in the top 1% or so in her ability to trade efficiently; in a category most of us mortals could only dream to achieve..

As for taking money to make money, I am not sure your comments fit what I have seen with Nodoji. To make $100K a year on a single contract and $10K account doesn't seem like a lot of money to make money to me..


Not trying to convince you since you have your own opinions, just sharing what I have personally witnessed.


Wolf

 

[NoDoji]

Quote from Lucias:

The main reason to do this is that there is huge money and opportunity for the winners,

With a well-researched and well-defined trading plan, there is huge money and opportunity for the winners (those who overcome their psychological issues).

Quote from Lucias:

...prestige, ability to prove you did it. Even, if you personally are not interested in any of that

I'm not interested in prestige or proving anything. I'm interested in trading and sharing my experiences with others, paying forward the experience professionals here shared with me.

Quote from Lucias:

Obviously, it varies year to year but 50% to 300% returns offer the chance of winning. Let me repeat, there is big money for the winners. I would enter if i could get the capital.

Well, first I've been able to predict/forecast the market in advance. I've never met anyone with that ability.

Obviously.. I have my records and anyone can see what I've did. I know for sure that if I could get into World Cup then I would (I will enter if anyone funds me and PM ME)..

Whoa...you can predict the market in advance? I've never met anyone with that ability either! How is it possible to possess such an astonishing ability and not have $10K with which to enter this contest?

Quote from Lucias:

I was also good friends (at one time) with Dr. Steenbarger. He now works at a prestigious hedge fund. He was a fixture of the futures community for many years. He wrote on his blog that he had never met a small retail trader who traded for a living: never ever had he seen such ability documented. You'd think if anyone would know then he would know.

You're assuming that Dr. Steenbarger has met all small retail traders. Red_Ink documented in great detail his ability to trade for a living right here on ET, as has Lescor, Szeven, EricP, and Geez (who by the way called every trade with stops and profit targets in advance).

Quote from Lucias:

Also, I met with the manager of a proprietary trading firm -- one of the biggest/best at one time -- a real firm that provides firm capital and doesn't sell trading. He's been in the business for a long time. I was told that he had never met a first year trader to do more then 40k-45k.

I wouldn't doubt that it's difficult to find a first year trader do much better. I lost a very large amount of money my first year.

Quote from Lucias:

But... wait there's more. There are published results from CTA's, hedge funds, etc. If you take the long term 5 year to 10 year results from money managers then Sharpe ratios drop to below 1. In other words, the best managers over the long run only do around 1:1 risk/reward.

If I had to invest/trade millions or billions of dollars, I'd be completely unable to apply my "small retail" methods to that process. I'd have not the vaguest clue as to what to do. It would be like starting over.

Lucias, if you can predict the market in advance, you'd be a billionaire.

Here's what I, and all successful small retail traders, can do:

We can predict that if we follow our well-researched trading plans, we will have a paycheck each week/month. If we are disciplined, alert, and ever humble, we may even generate considerable wealth.

 

[NoDoji]

Quote from wolfpacker:

I can tell you that Nodoji was very modest in her ability.. I have seen her call entries and exits at will in CL day after day in a live chat room and I have seen her extract much more than what she modestly says is possible on most every occasion I have had the pleasure of witnessing.

Thank you for your very kind words, but I have a confession to make:

It's all Muffin. She has the ability to predict the market in advance; I learned to interpret her signals

 

[Buckeye_sharpie]

Hello, I don't post on here, but i can also vouch for Donna and you should be lucky she tries to give help and advice.

 

[SimpleTrades]

Quote from NoDoji:

Thank you for your very kind words, but I have a confession to make:

It's all Muffin. She has the ability to predict the market in advance; I learned to interpret her signals

In my case, its all Dino. When he wags his tail left to right, I go long. When he wags it right to left, I go short. When he goes racing around the room like a nut, double up on my current position. I have a few other rules too.

 

[SteveH]

Donna (NoDoji) said:

"Study CL in the 5-min and 1-min time frame, one chart above the other. Choose any day's action and tell me you can't extract 40 ticks profit out of it each day (that's $400 per contract) by trading short along the underside of a falling 1-min EMA and long on the upside of a rising 1-min 20 EMA. Trade boundaries: either shoot for 10 ticks profit with a 10-tick max stop or 20 ticks profit with a 20-tick max stop, depending on the time frame you choose to focus on. "

So Lucias, there's your "in". Take the challenge and prove she doesn't know what she's talking (with her own dog food, no less!). What's really going to freak you out though is that she's such a nice person, you could post your failures with it and, even then, she would give you pointers on how to improve your results.