Why dont you join us at Illimunati and find out?
Why do 5% of Traders Win?
- Thread starter oldtime
- Start date
I really agree with this. My own personal belief is that the 5% who get paid by the market are providing it with a valuable service - thereby increasing its overall efficiency and functionality to the hedgers who use it for reasons other than trading profits.
It's strange, how much sense you're making today. I recall you attempting to bust my ballz for stating something similar, albeit in less detail and with just one system rather than 44.
I'm up to about 8-9 and am thinking along the same lines - system diversification brings a great benefit in terms of lowering risk and volatility to the total fund. It also brings automatic deactivation when performance measures are not reached.
Seeing as how I'm repeating what you already know, I expect another psychologically creative comment in return.
Your right, I do not know your systems. My definition of a system and your definition could be very different. Also we never discussed the time frame viewed from. Over a long enough time line, I'd bet your systems will become unprofitable.
Got it, thanks. The link seems to state that it is a combination of random and non-random (repeating) characteristics to a data series.
Sounds similar to the signal vs. noise concept when optimizing a stratety: if you optimize the noise the strategy will break in forward testing, if you get part of the signal it may provide some profit, but probably not as much as in the back test.
Example: using a third order polynomial to fit data that is really a cosine function + random variance. The poly fit goes out of whack instantly, in the unseen data.
Over a long enough time frame, will he retire his systemz and bank the capital? Will he change the systems to meet changing market behavior? Is this all part of being a professional system trader?
What say ye?