Why do 5% of Traders Win?

[HATEtheRisk]

Quote from Wide Tailz:

Interesting. So an indicator helps you size up the odds?

Nope.

I said stochastik, that is a special subject of statistics.

This has nothing to do with the indicator stochastics invented by george lane.

I was talking about statistics, where the subject calles stochastic is to predict future odds. Like in weather forcasting, this is for example used stochastic.

They are mostly correct in their forcasting, its the same in trading.

Got it.



Its not my fault, that george lane named this indicator stochastics, he could also have named it momentum average measure, or something like that.

This here is stochastic:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stochastic

then comes combinatorics:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combinatorics

after all fit into a bigger picture with statistics:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistics

Not to be confused with stochastic oscillators in technical analysis.

 

[adadadog]

Quote from HATEtheRisk:

We 5%, wait for our opportunity.

If there is no opportunity, we dont care, the next will come soon, or not.

There is no reason to risk money, in a scenario, where you are not 100% sure you will make money, exactly as how you think price will go...........

BUT, WHEN...............

we finally found a setup to trade,.........BOOOOOOOOMMM

we buy the shit out of the market and trade really big size, to make a fucking good bunch of money.

Because this is the reward for all that waiting and being patient.

We are hunters.

------------
If you have the time, go and watch a cat hunting.
Watch how long the cat just sits there and watchs the mouse hole, and finally after 5 hours sitting, the mouse comes out and is dead meat.
Then the cat goes to their shelter, eats the mouse and take a good nap.
-----------
To trade like the 5%, you must become a CAT.

Forget about cheetas, CATS are the true spirit animal of a Master Trader. We are dangerous hunters, but we look like cute animals........

Work of a 5% trader in %:

70% of time, we watch markets and watch for setups to build them up.....
20% of time, we watch our trades, tick by tick, reading the tape......
5% of time, we make the deals, buying and selling, managing orders......
5% of time, we do research and training on strategies and mental training

!!! Also, 90% of all possible setups we could trade, we miss !!!

KILL THE MOUSE
**meaow**

The mouse stands out sharply out of its background; trading setups are blurred into its "background", invisible to most traders.

 

[HATEtheRisk]

Quote from Handle123:

I developed one method that loses 11% of the trades, AND I designed it to bet against the other traders. I call it "SR" and no it is not Support/Resistance, it is called "Screwed Retail", I have found a couple patterns of when the retail trader throws up their hands and finally gets out and I take the other side of their trade. I back/forward tested it over fifteen years of data. I do not cause them to originally take the trade, but provide a service allowing them to get out. It happens from 0-6 times a day in ES.

I always have three computers running in my office doing backtests of patterns that look interesting, but mainly for exits and seldom for entries. You still have to work hard at trading, especially in the beginning, cause you have to learn how to code to be able to backtest and have some conviction of what you are doing is going to work and not just over a couple years of recent data.

I think people are just too greedy, they want it yesterday, and seldom satisfied of making even one tic on a day trade. Forty % of my trades are one tic on original entry, and yeah, I miss out on some profitable trades that reverse if I hadn't of taken the one tic, but so many more where complete losses are avoided.


That is so right, the inexperienced, the lazy, the dreamer, the guy who just opened his first account, the undisciplined, the emotional, they all have the same things in common, lack of a fully tested trading plan. If your subconsious has faith in your trading plan, you are just there to hit buttons, it is the same video game all hour long, day, week, month.....

I am mentoring someone now, we were on the phone other day when a signal happens, we both get long, Price starts going down, at every tic down, I am adding same amount of contracts, after price gone down two points, I hear him several times keep asking if we should just get out instead of being stopped out, he is asking a ton of questions of "what if", I just keep adding more contracts, his brain is SCREAMING "Get Out, Get Out", he knows the rules are firm, but the pain is emotionally hurting his brain, I calmly told him price most likely will get withn 1-2 tics of the stop and reverse, and cause of Time rule, our new target will be one tic, twenty minutes later, we got our one tic profit. He was totally exhausted, but I was proud of him of hanging in there. THAT is what trading is all about, overcoming that internal emotional feelings and working your rules.... he was almost begging to end the trade so his brain would stop hurting him, but he knows the rules.

Yes, you are a real trader.

Welcome to the 5% on ET.

 

[HATEtheRisk]

Quote from adadadog:

The mouse stands out sharply out of its background; trading setups are blurred into its "background", invisible to most traders.

No, the mouse is usualy hidden in its hole.
The cat does not know if the mouse is in it or not.

The cat only knows the odds are higher to wait in front of the hole, than walking around and searching where the mouse is.

This 5% of traders are seeing the mouse acting and running around in its hole all the time, we just wait until it comes out......

:eek: :eek: :eek:

 

[Zr1Trader]

I have traded methods where I wait for setups all day and I have traded "always in" strategies.

How many of the 95% trade "always in" reversing trades sequentially through the whole RTH session in a market like natty gas or oil grabbing volatility? I would guess not many.

How many of the 95% are sitting there "waiting for their setup"?
I would say the majority.

Both can work , With either way , a proven tried, true, and tested methodology with discipline must be present which basically eliminates any of the 95% off the bat.

Vig is a big invisible hand also that 95 percenters don't see. They'll jump in and out 10 times in a 5 tick range using market orders and wonder where their money went. If there is only 10 swings of 70 cents on avg during the day in oil for example, then one shouldn't be trading any more than 10-12 RTS while Trying to capture the meat of each move.

 

[oilfxpro]

Quote from oldtime:

everybody seems to be an expert on why 95% of trader lose. Just wondering if there are any experts out there on why 5% of traders win.

You won't get the answers on E T.They don't know it here.

 

[cornix]

Quote from oldtime:

everybody seems to be an expert on why 95% of trader lose. Just wondering if there are any experts out there on why 5% of traders win.

Discipline and focus. Both practiced as deliberately as to push the limits of human possibilities.

 

[Humpy]

Same old story, nothing much changes

The top 5% own 90% of what's going.

The crumbs ( 10% ) is just enough to keep the workers housed and fed.

As someone said - there's people and there's sheeple.

 

[danielc1]

Pffffffft... 12 pages allready and nobody has sayed anything about the moon and other planets in orbit...

"How can I become a winner in trading?" You do not want to know... "Yes, yes tell me." No, you really do not want to know... "Come on, please, tell me!" Okay...

Look up what do you see? Air. What do you see further? Space. What is in space? Planets and stars.

Know how they move, know how they influence people behavior and you will know all you need to know to trade succesfully.

Naay, no way... You are crazy!!!

Yep, 20 years and counting (not only money)...

 

[pauk]

they're probably not looking at charts or indicators or anything that us retail crowd are even aware of. They're privy to special information. They are likely capturing the spread intraday, too.