Why do 5% of Traders Win?

emg · Mar 6, 2012

Quote from ammo:

i dont argue the value of higher education,but few if any on this blog work for the goldman,the majority of the trading population is the other 99%,point was ,and i cant define it, there is a quality in few ,that if they have it ,they will rise to the top,most likely with an education, but with or without,they will rise,the best ball player,golfer,surfer,trader,basket weaver,wood carver,artist,doctor,scientist,soldier..that elusive talent with in is the key that places them above their peers

Those that trade in the institutional have a higher chance of being successful than those who don't.

emg · Mar 6, 2012

Quote from emg:

Here is an interesting research from UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA BERKELEY about day trading:

http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/odean/papers/Day Traders/Day Trading and Learning 110217.pdf

So why do investors take up day trading and why do so many persist in the face of
losses? We consider three broadly defined answers to this question.

First, it could be the case that day traders do not have standard risk-averse
preferences; they may be risk-seeking or attracted to investments with highly skewed
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investments, such as lotteries, that have negative expected returns but a small probability
of a large payoff as suggested by Kumar (2009). Unlike
lottery winners, day traders must succeed on repeated gambles in order to achieve overall
success. Such repeated gambles do not tend to generate highly skewed distributions.

Second, day traders may be overconfident in their prior beliefs about their
abilities and biased in the way they learn. Several papers (e.g., Odean (1998, 1999),
Barber and Odean (2000, 2001)) argue that overconfidence causes investors to trade more
than is in their own best interest. Overconfident day traders may simply be bearing losses
that they did not anticipate.

Third, day traders may trade for non-financial motivations including
entertainment, a taste for gambling, and the desire to impress others (see, e.g. Grinblatt
and Keloharju (2009)). Some investors may enjoy the process of day trading so much that
they are willing to persist in the face of regular losses. Some investors may be attracted to
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the casino like qualities of day trading with its frequent bets, wins, and losses.*** Some
investors may choose to day trade in hopes of impressing others.â â â

For prospective day traders,
âtrading to learnâ is no more rational or profitable than playing roulette to learn.

emg · Mar 6, 2012

Another thing, the point of me showing proofs why small traders lose is to make them understand what is trading all about. Most of these newbies are duped by 3rd party educational vendors/signal providers making them believing u can make a living trading with as little as $3000.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_exchange_fraud

Between 2001 and 2006 the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has prosecuted more than 80 cases involving the defrauding of more than 23,000 customers who lost $350 million. From 2001 to 2007, about 26,000 people lost $460 million in forex frauds

That is not trading.

IF u want to become a trader, Higher Education is the path.

Higher Education!!

tenthousandmen · Mar 6, 2012

Quote from beachhouse:

I think the number should be 99%. of course, I am open for debate, if you disagree, let me know.

Next, we need to define "higher." After we know exactly how higher an education should be, we can tell ET newbies and oldies to get a certain level of education.

Personally, I think higher should be at least MBA, from a private university, where you pay for your education, like University of Phoenix. Never a state university, those tax payers supported universities are no good, they are all free party schools.

Who are you to say what higher education is with your background?

Arizona? Something to do with el Hershey?

ammo · Mar 6, 2012

Quote from emg:

Another thing, the point of me showing proofs why small traders lose is to make them understand what is trading all about. Most of these newbies are duped by 3rd party educational vendors/signal providers making them believing u can make a living trading with as little as $3000.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_exchange_fraud

Between 2001 and 2006 the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has prosecuted more than 80 cases involving the defrauding of more than 23,000 customers who lost $350 million. From 2001 to 2007, about 26,000 people lost $460 million in forex frauds

That is not trading.

IF u want to become a trader, Higher Education is the path.

Higher Education!!

very few of your ivy league idols ..morgan s, goldiie ,jpm chase know how to trade,they know how to use illegal info ,manipulation and deception,the same stuff that falls under your defraud statement, and it can be taught but it's very rare that the student would learn,you can't learn to trade from books

ChaosNSX · Mar 6, 2012

âBefore success comes in any manâs life, he is sure to meet with much temporary defeat, and, perhaps, some failure. When defeat overtakes a man, the easiest and most logical thing to do is to quit. That is exactly what the majority of men do. More than five hundred of the most successful men this country has ever known told the author their greatest success came just one step beyond the point at which defeat had overtaken them.â
― Napoleon Hill, Think and Grow Rich

beachhouse · Mar 7, 2012

Quote from tenthousandmen:

Who are you to say what higher education is with your background?

Your poor English grammar indicates that you need higher education.

Man, get an MBA from a reputable university, like University of Phoenix, or University of Crappella.

Handle123 · Mar 8, 2012

Quote from emg:

Another thing, the point of me showing proofs why small traders lose is to make them understand what is trading all about. Most of these newbies are duped by 3rd party educational vendors/signal providers making them believing u can make a living trading with as little as $3000.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_exchange_fraud

Between 2001 and 2006 the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has prosecuted more than 80 cases involving the defrauding of more than 23,000 customers who lost $350 million. From 2001 to 2007, about 26,000 people lost $460 million in forex frauds

That is not trading.

IF u want to become a trader, Higher Education is the path.

Higher Education!!

The problem of almost all that buy methods, they never had the disipline to trade whatever they made and spring for a method, and still lack disipline. Plus, we live in a world of flex, new traders don't have the ability to alter methods or identify changes have to be made. Like when markets goes into chop, targets must be lowered. new traders are much more greedy than experienced, they change targets trying to get much more, when they could have gotten 10.00 points on five trades in ES, they end up with nothing cause they were trying to make homeruns, where the experienced go home profitable.

And $3000 is very doable, but you have to sim trade, and if you can't make profits 13 of 15 days, real time you will crumble and become bait.

Education has much to do with investing in stocks, reading financials, but trading, good if you learn programming and have intense desires to excel with games. Trading is a game, thats it, play to win, don't get married to your trade.

Yes, there is fraud from many venders, as they lie to sell their products and they should be fined, but there are so many greedy people who won't devote the time to overcome the intense work needed to become profitable. They rather come to this site and post thousands of reasons they can't make it.

cornix · Mar 9, 2012

Quote from Handle123:

The problem of almost all that buy methods, they never had the disipline to trade whatever they made and spring for a method, and still lack disipline. Plus, we live in a world of flex, new traders don't have the ability to alter methods or identify changes have to be made. Like when markets goes into chop, targets must be lowered. new traders are much more greedy than experienced, they change targets trying to get much more, when they could have gotten 10.00 points on five trades in ES, they end up with nothing cause they were trying to make homeruns, where the experienced go home profitable.

Very good points here. Consistent adaptation is the key to consistent profitability. When one can distinguish chop/range from the trend, she/he can manage trades differently and get optimal profit.

Those who cannot adapt, trade the same way all the time and are doomed to have periods of serious drawdowns, because they either suffer from the trend or from the chop (depending on which kind of strategy they employ).

Mysteron · Mar 10, 2012

I'd say spotting opportunities that are developing and waiting for a high probability entry is important. WLT had an excessive range that day so a short entry at the right time and conditions, was likely to succeed.

Equivalent to the obvious statement: 'let winners run and cut loosers' is the ability to take a look at one self and eliminate bad behaviour. Keep asking yourself 'what did I do wrong?', make a note of it and stop doing it.