Quote from pegasys1:
Look at a weekly chart of EUR/USD, whats the big trend?, up. I Only trade in the long term direction, which for the dollar I think is down. Right now I am short carry trades, cause they represent risk, and I think thinks are much riskier than people realize.
Recently I have been doing well of off Eur/Jpy shorts, and have not been long EUR/USD since 1.55.
The fed just prints and prints, no good. I'm shorting the stock market on rallies.
It has worked well so far![]()
You should look at the long term trend, but you should also understand the big picture, and look at the most recent trend. The dollar has broken out strongly, is now making higher highs and lows. It has more strength now against EVERY major currency than its had since 2005. The likelyhood is that the recession is turning into a global thing, and so even though the US will not be raising rates, neither will anyone else. The Dollar is no longer in a bear market., and just blindly following a "trend" is a way to insure that you don't do nearly as well as you could, and you will likely at some point end up out of the game.