Why did S&P said there can be a DOUBLE dip recession in 2012?

Quote from trefoil:

You must think we're all fools.
If you zoom out to 5 years, the graph you see looks a lot like gold in, say, the mid-nineties: a huge bubble followed by a huge bust followed by a long phase of consolidation.
My guess (I'm not a shipping magnate, so I don't know if this is true or not, but it sure looks this way) is that a bunch of guys jumped in and built new ships when this index was on its way up in 06, 07 and 08, and all those ships are now being used now, which is preventing rates from recovering back to where they were in those years.
In other words, high prices were the cure for high prices. Happens in all kinds of markets all the time. No reason for this one to be any different.
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...and a minute on Google reveals (http://seekingalpha.com/article/258...provides-little-insight-into-shippers-returns):


The dry shipping industry has been hit hard by oversupply stemming from several strong years and declining demand due to the recession. This supply/demand imbalance has largely manifested itself in a weakening (and strangely volatile) Baltic Dry Index (BDI).
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Sheesh.
 
regardless whether BDI is accurate or not, it's still a micro index, not a macro one.

Even if it's moving up, it could be govt. or business spending, which doesn't gauge American consumers and the state of US economy

any1 else has any take why S&P said there is that scenario of recession in 2012?
 
Unemployment clams dropped to 403k this week from last week's 416k said a report by the US Department of Labor.

Not much but a move in the right direction.
 
Quote from EMRGLOBAL:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND


It is heading to new lows FOOL! Pull your head outa your ass sucka.

Low was 1043.....it's gunning for it~!

You ass clowns crack me up as I listen to Rage Against the Machine....and read some of the replies.

6 dollar gas anyone?
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Buddy, you are clueless. I highly suspect that most of what you write about yourself is complete fiction, but if you do have "clients" I am concerned for them. People of such limited knowledge in financial affairs should not advise others.

The Dry Shipping index is absolutely meaningless to where stock markets will go. More important is something very basic, how much money that corporations make, with some further impact from resulting dividend levels and m&a activity. For all the noise on Elitetrader, it is extremely rare when someone talks about these key aspects. Instead, we get clowns like you talking about bs and general financial catastrophe ideas. Yet somehow a lot of these corporations are making record profits and have decent outlook.

If we want proof of your foolishness we need only look back at some of the posts you made last year. I still remember you saying boasting that all your clients were in emerging markets last September, and in reality the place to be was North America.
 
"record profits and decent outlook" are meaningless too. I would pay more attention to the baltic dry index . In 2007, corporations were also making record profits and there was only clear sailing ahead. The depressed baltic dry index is interesting to put in perspective with extremely high commoditiy prices. There is a big disconnect , perhaps because it's all speculation, real economy is not as strong as commodity prices would imply.

Is there going to be a recession in the next 3-4 years? Yes, it's pretty much a no-brainer, you just have to look at markets at unsustainable levels to realize that .
 
There is something that doesn't remotely add up. Dow is only -11.797% from the Oct. 2007 intraday high. And yet the US economy is having a very fragile recovery, w/ job losses still in the 8 to 12 million range, and will take 5 to 6 yr. to regain all those jobs.

So how can the Dow be 5 to 6 yr. ahead of the economy?
 
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