Why did S&P said there can be a DOUBLE dip recession in 2012?

H

Happy Hopping

In our baseline macroeconomic scenario of near 3% annual real growth, we
expect the general government deficit to decline gradually but remain slightly
higher than 6% of GDP in 2013. As a result, net general government debt would
reach 84% of GDP by 2013. In our macroeconomic forecast's optimistic scenario
(assuming near 4% annual real growth), the fiscal deficit would fall to 4.6%
of GDP by 2013, but the U.S.'s net general government debt would still rise to
almost 80% of GDP by 2013. In our pessimistic scenario (a mild, one-year
double-dip recession in 2012), the deficit would be 9.1%, while net debt would
surpass 90% by 2013. Even in our optimistic scenario, we believe the U.S.'s
fiscal profile would be less robust than those of other 'AAA' rated sovereigns
by 2013.
More...

Now, I understand they said it's a pessimistic case, but still, they can't just create that unless they believe there is a reasonable chance of happening. But so far, this is only the 2nd source who said about a recession in 2012, w/ the former VP of Citi group came fwd. at CNBC saying the same thing last week.

However, majority of the people is still seeing growth in 2012

Any1 believes in a recession next yr.? Any1 knows how S&P comes up w/ that scenario?
 
I expect the Double dip to start Next Quarter.

The Baltic Dry Shipping Index is tanking to new lows. Oil prices are rising, GAS is near the tip'n point that consumers cut back and Business pass on higher energy cost.

Unemployment numbers, well the are rising not falling and the data is a joke. Even with McJobs at 50,000. 'Fries with that"?

housing inventories are still high and credit is still tight, with very little lending.

So far, earnings season is a joke, lower the bar enough and it's easy to meet or beat.

IMHO, we started the double dip already but I give it to next quarter before the PUNDITS start the whisper.
 
after '87 crash there was around 35 months before recession started globally. Now we are in month 32 after GFC crash.

rates going up bit by bit.

stimulus drying up. All expectations seem based on more borrowing which is mostly not happening.

however aud is near high so holding off from shorting for now.
 
Quote from EMRGLOBAL:

I expect the Double dip to start Next Quarter.

The Baltic Dry Shipping Index is tanking to new lows. Oil prices are rising, GAS is near the tip'n point that consumers cut back and Business pass on higher energy cost.

Unemployment numbers, well the are rising not falling and the data is a joke. Even with McJobs at 50,000. 'Fries with that"?

housing inventories are still high and credit is still tight, with very little lending.

So far, earnings season is a joke, lower the bar enough and it's easy to meet or beat.

IMHO, we started the double dip already but I give it to next quarter before the PUNDITS start the whisper.
More...

Baltic never moves up since Mar. 2009, so using Baltic as a gauge is quite unfair.

Unemployment no. has been dropping from the 500K per week to 400K per week.

Housing inventory has been bad since Mar. 2009, and yet we have GDP growth and market has moved up since

The above 3 gauge are micro gauge regardless, the marco no. is the job growth, and we do have 200K+ per mth. lately.
 
Quote from macroman:

after '87 crash there was around 35 months before recession started globally. Now we are in month 32 after GFC crash.

rates going up bit by bit.

stimulus drying up. All expectations seem based on more borrowing which is mostly not happening.

however aud is near high so holding off from shorting for now.
More...

that means nothing. there is no co-relation from the 87 crash to the current econ. environment

rate is not up yet, and even if they move up 0.25%, it will take a handful of those to tank growth, but there is no reason to believe the Fed. will do that

I do agree that stimulus is drying up but by the same token, job growth is 220K per mth.
 
Quote from macroman:

after '87 crash there was around 35 months before recession started globally. Now we are in month 32 after GFC crash.

rates going up bit by bit.

stimulus drying up. All expectations seem based on more borrowing which is mostly not happening.

however aud is near high so holding off from shorting for now.
More...

The '87 "crash" was an aberration. An internal affair, though of course international markets were affected. Wouldn't put much stock in its predictive value. See Bookstaber, "A Demon of our own Design" for details.
 
Quote from EMRGLOBAL:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND


It is heading to new lows FOOL! Pull your head outa your ass sucka.

Low was 1043.....it's gunning for it~!

You ass clowns crack me up as I listen to Rage Against the Machine....and read some of the replies.


6 dollar gas anyone?
More...

You must think we're all fools.
If you zoom out to 5 years, the graph you see looks a lot like gold in, say, the mid-nineties: a huge bubble followed by a huge bust followed by a long phase of consolidation.
My guess (I'm not a shipping magnate, so I don't know if this is true or not, but it sure looks this way) is that a bunch of guys jumped in and built new ships when this index was on its way up in 06, 07 and 08, and all those ships are now being used now, which is preventing rates from recovering back to where they were in those years.
In other words, high prices were the cure for high prices. Happens in all kinds of markets all the time. No reason for this one to be any different.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top