''Why did ES turn there?''

C

chillibean

I guess one can always find a reason in hindisght due to the nature of TA, but I thought i'd start a thread to help us spot/explain intraday turns and stuff. (or even just 'obvious' trades (to everyone else) / moves that you didn't catch)

Start with yesterday.
The low made soon after the open. I was waiting to maybe reject the globex low for a possible long (long as the trend was generally bullish) but it never reached it before bouncing, and it seems like EVERYONE on twitter bought the low except me!
What made that such an easy trade?

2nd trade that everyone seemed to catch was the retest in the evning at the 3684 level
Again, everyone seemed certain that was a safe trade and a good level.
I was starting to turn bearish at that point! And what was good about that area technically?
(I actually traded it Long and and made money, but only because I was following a few traders on twitter who know more than me - ps please don't ask for their twitter names. This thread isn't about that and I don't want to be accused of shilling lol)


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If the answer is 'orderflow' (as often seems to be the case for twitter guys) can you try to add some pics or something to help explain exactly what to look for?
 
Do you also watch news, what was happening at that time was chairman Powells q and a. Ppl were making reactionary moves as he spoke. Initially it wasn't clear but when it became apparent especially( the unemployment projection )that all will be good, buyers picked up. In level 2 you should be able to spot avg size of bids and 1 or 2 above average bids. Place your trade .25 above theirs and you will bounce.
Trading during volatile time is always unpredictable because news is moving the trades and not technicals.
I maxed out on emini so I bot micro on mesh.
Hopefully I am right cut up chart has no time.
 
Although I do often buy the low of the day or sell the high, I also have more than one 'try' because it is not always really clear, even with orderflow. There is a shift and then a 'push'. That push comes later after the turn 'spike' and is not ready visible at the moment the low or high is made. The high and low happens mostly at pivot points of 30 minute candles, daily candles or value high, low areas on market profiles
 
I'm just waiting for the open so I will chime in. The search for 'why' something happened in spoos is going to be a long and frustrating with no happy ending. The market could have moved for any reason, news related or non news related.

If I was in the business of taking 'why' type trades I wouldn't you want to isolate a theme. For example you think shopping malls are a broken model so you long online retailers vs bricks and mortar retailers. That's a 'why' type trade isn't it.

What is your edge in the market? If you don't know you don't have one and your account will soon be gone. If you are looking for a TA based trade 'setup' which most retail punters are you will can find any set of TA conditions and find out that they sometimes work and they sometimes don't.

It really is as simple as buying dips in an uptrend OR buying low and selling high in a range (or vice versa) with exceptional money management.
 
Check out the size of that 1st swing. Maybe that will give you some answers.

That 2nd entry, where I also went long, was a double bottom which was confirmed with buy signals on my charts.

At that point, I knew that it was very likely we'd see range expansion either up or down. With that higher low/double bottom/buy signals I went long targeting new highs.

PS: I also tend to check out a certain guy on Twitter, but I remain un-impressed to be honest. Would love to check out those guys if they actually have anything of value.
 
chillibean said:
I guess one can always find a reason in hindisght due to the nature of TA, but I thought i'd start a thread to help us spot/explain intraday turns and stuff. (or even just 'obvious' trades (to everyone else) / moves that you didn't catch)

Start with yesterday.
The low made soon after the open. I was waiting to maybe reject the globex low for a possible long (long as the trend was generally bullish) but it never reached it before bouncing, and it seems like EVERYONE on twitter bought the low except me!
What made that such an easy trade?

2nd trade that everyone seemed to catch was the retest in the evning at the 3684 level
Again, everyone seemed certain that was a safe trade and a good level.
I was starting to turn bearish at that point! And what was good about that area technically?
(I actually traded it Long and and made money, but only because I was following a few traders on twitter who know more than me - ps please don't ask for their twitter names. This thread isn't about that and I don't want to be accused of shilling lol)


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If the answer is 'orderflow' (as often seems to be the case for twitter guys) can you try to add some pics or something to help explain exactly what to look for?
More...

The fact that you even asked that question shows you are on the right track. Keep it up.

KISS, baby!
 
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