Why Default on United States' Treasuries is Nearly Certain

[lrm21]

I have no optimistic outlook for the U.S. Economy in the near term, but debt default is pretty unlikely

1) Our financial picture is not that bleak, in order to make bleak you need to resort to "unfunded liabilities" scare which is a little misleading, since they are funded by future workers, and more people come to the U.S. then leave, for now anyway.

2) We are already in a severe correction which is affecting mindsets not unlike the great depression, it takes years but savings is rising, and spending will be curtailed.

3) the economics are self correcting, its the politics that could destroy this country but even then we would have to move to a full soviet union model to embark on complete collapse.

4) we are not zimbabwe, we are not some African piss hole. there are plenty of buyers waiting in the wings as the dollar goes down.

things are bad, will get worse but lets not get silly. default no, high inflation yes, hyper inflation, ehh for U.S. standards remote possible, 30-50% but zimbabwe, 1000% inflation come on. really.

 

[DrPepper]

Quote from lrm21:

"...spending will be curtailed..."

Politicians in general and democrats in particular do not know how to curtail spending. The only way they know how to solve a problem is by spending more money, even if they have to print astronomical amounts. Whenever they make spending cuts, it is "projected" over long periods like ten years, with the bulk of the cuts in the last few years, which never occur. There will be some spending cuts, but democrats are much better at raising taxes. Expect a big tax hike next year with token spending cuts. And there will be financial upheaval, whether it is a deeper stock market crash, hyperinflation, further devaluation of the dollar with a new reserve currency, treasury default or some dramatic action by the Chinese.

 

[crgarcia]

Quote from ByLoSellHi:

http://www.econlib.org/library/Columns/y2009/Hummeltbills.html

Default?
No

Payments with worthless currency?
Probable

 

[ProgrammerGuy]

Quote from makloda:

Japan will default long before the US. And their 10y bond yields ~1.5%... certainly no bond panic yet. Plus their population growth is 0% compared to the US' 1%.

good pt

 

[college_trad3r]

Funny how the Chinese are more similar to the real Americans than the degenerate consumer American you see nowadays.

 

[morganist]

Quote from Sashe:

how paying off your debt is gonna help you if the financial calamity looms anyway?

i don't agree. there will be problems with the economy before the crash. one problem could be interest rise and you could lose out if you have debt, the things you need could be taken away before the collapse and you be without them when you need them.

if you recall the process of recession a lot of people lose their houses, which would happen before a collapse. maybe i am wrong but if not it is very uncertain and i would risk it. it is good advise to get rid of debt and to do it now while the repayments are low.