Not when used in context.
Granted a 60-100% win rate means very little without the context of how much you win and lose. But a return of over 100% a month day trading is pretty damn good regardless of how big your account is.
Why complicate things?
- Thread starter trader1974
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Granted a 60-100% win rate means very little without the context of how much you win and lose. But a return of over 100% a month day trading is pretty damn good regardless of how big your account is.
Disagree.
100% a month .... for a month is less than 10% for the year if the remaining 11 months a trader broke even.
And if someone by pure luck (which btw I don't believe in
) they did 100% per month for a whole year they need to recalculate what that works out to on a year basis but it certainly isn't simple math of 100 x 12, <> 1200%Like I said you need the context.Disagree.
100% a month .... for a month is less than 10% for the year if the remaining 11 months a trader broke even.
And if someone by pure luck (which btw I don't believe in
I'd still prefer knowing that a trader managed to do a certain percent return rather than made so many dollars.
As for 100% per month $100 would compound to over 200K.
There are only two ways to make money in trading:
1. Harvest risk premium aka. holding something that has unattractive risks for the majority of the players and getting paid for it
2. Find cheap convexity aka hold something you don't lose a lot with in the majority of outcomes but get paid huge when your bet is correct.
Retailers either try to predict where the market is going to go (these will lose their shirt in the end) or they are working on #2 while they structure their bets incorrectly or fail to cut the right side of the return distribution.
You can call it however you like (value investing, momentum, market making) and achieve it however you like (timing, quantitative, exploiting microstructure) but in the end everything boils down to these two concepts.
1. Harvest risk premium aka. holding something that has unattractive risks for the majority of the players and getting paid for it
2. Find cheap convexity aka hold something you don't lose a lot with in the majority of outcomes but get paid huge when your bet is correct.
Retailers either try to predict where the market is going to go (these will lose their shirt in the end) or they are working on #2 while they structure their bets incorrectly or fail to cut the right side of the return distribution.
You can call it however you like (value investing, momentum, market making) and achieve it however you like (timing, quantitative, exploiting microstructure) but in the end everything boils down to these two concepts.
The context is making X% over a month. I don't know about you but I've doing this a long time and what I did in the month of May, 1997 I haven't a clue. Or even last May.
What I've done recent months, ok.
To use a sports analogy what happens in the first game, week, month and each succeeding month doesn't matter if the last game of the year is a loss. The last "game" determines all and what the season truly accomplished.
Not a good analogy. In trading I can lose the last game and still win the season.
I prefer percentages as a measure so that I'm comparing apples to apples so to speak. If we each made 10k last month, but you had a 10K account and I had a million dollar account. You are obviously the better trader.
But re-reading your post, you did say daily, weekly and monthly. So I'll agree with that. You never know what next month will do. Now if you tell me that your average return per month is over 100% (Like nooby has) then I'm impressed with your trading skill regardless of your account size.
Like you say it comes down to the end of the season. If you are trading you should be able to outperform a buy and hold strategy. If at the end of the year you haven't beaten your benchmark, you probably shouldn't be trading.
Be impressed with day trading leverage only... Otherwise I'd need a 10x larger account.
Not impressed with leverage. It works both ways.
Now if you really want to impress, show me risk control and capital preservation along with excellent returns.
Why complicate things?
Why do swing trading and ended up negative?
You might be positive a few thousand dollars.
and a few minutes later, all your profit vaporizes.
Then you weep and gnash your teeth in despair.
With day trading, you can capture the ups and downs within a day.
and every day, you bring home the bacon.
and every day, you can sleep well.
That's why I gave up on swing trading 2 decades ago.
That's why I migrated from swing to day trading.
For crude oil, it has been excellent for day trading,
not swing trading.
for grains futures, it is good for swing trading, not day trading.
etc etc
It doesn't mean the success rate for swing trading is > 90%.
the success rate for swing and day trading is < 10%.
anyway, go try swing and day trading, and see which suits you.
Why do swing trading and ended up negative?
You might be positive a few thousand dollars.
and a few minutes later, all your profit vaporizes.
Then you weep and gnash your teeth in despair.
With day trading, you can capture the ups and downs within a day.
and every day, you bring home the bacon.
and every day, you can sleep well.
That's why I gave up on swing trading 2 decades ago.
That's why I migrated from swing to day trading.
For crude oil, it has been excellent for day trading,
not swing trading.
for grains futures, it is good for swing trading, not day trading.
etc etc
It doesn't mean the success rate for swing trading is > 90%.
the success rate for swing and day trading is < 10%.
anyway, go try swing and day trading, and see which suits you.
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