Why commodities will rise

[DT-waw]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-commodities-look-set-rocket-higher


The worlds population grows at 1% per year.
After 70 yrs it doubles. Guess by how much population will rise 350 yrs from now? 32 times.

We're talking 210 billion consumers.

In a year 2711?
900x more people than today.

 

[morganist]

Quote from DT-waw:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-commodities-look-set-rocket-higher


The worlds population grows at 1% per year.
After 70 yrs it doubles. Guess by how much population will rise 350 yrs from now? 32 times.

We're talking 210 billion consumers.

In a year 2711?
900x more people than today.

People will die before that happens. That is what is happening in the third world now. They are not creating enough resources to feed the growing population.

 

[m22au]

Quote from DT-waw:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-commodities-look-set-rocket-higher


The worlds population grows at 1% per year.
After 70 yrs it doubles. Guess by how much population will rise 350 yrs from now? 32 times.

We're talking 210 billion consumers.

In a year 2711?
900x more people than today.

The global fertility rate (babies born per woman) hit a peak in about 1960.

If we assume that peak oil is here (or here within 10 years)
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=201790

then its reasonable to assume that the fertility rate will drop (especially in developed countries) due to the rising cost of food and energy.

Furthermore, another unfortunate impact of peak oil is a general decline in living standards, which approximately equates to a decline in health of those affected. This would result in shorter life expectancy.

A declining birth rate coupled with shorter life expectancy = slowing rate of population growth, and possible even population decline.

Some countries such as Japan are already experiencing a greying of their population.

 

[morganist]

Quote from m22au:

The global fertility rate (babies born per woman) hit a peak in about 1960.

If we assume that peak oil is here (or here within 10 years)
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=201790

then its reasonable to assume that the fertility rate will drop (especially in developed countries) due to the rising cost of food and energy.

Furthermore, another unfortunate impact of peak oil is a general decline in living standards, which approximately equates to a decline in health of those affected. This would result in shorter life expectancy.

A declining birth rate coupled with shorter life expectancy = slowing rate of population growth, and possible even population decline.

Some countries such as Japan are already experiencing a greying of their population.

Also you need oil to make food. You need 10 grams of oil for every gram of food. They need it to make fertiliser.

 

[m22au]

Quote from morganist:

People will die before that happens. That is what is happening in the third world now. They are not creating enough resources to feed the growing population.

Setting aside financial markets for a moment, one of the many unfortunate things I've read about peak oil (and indeed "peak everything") is that the decline of the fertility rate is slowest in the poorest parts of the planet.

So although living standards in those parts of the world are low, and (if you believe peak oil to be true) food prices will rise, the world's poorest are the ones who are making the smallest change to their birth rate.

 

[m22au]

Quote from morganist:

Also you need oil to make food. You need 10 grams of oil for every gram of food. They need it to make fertiliser.

correct - as you are probably aware, stocks like POT MOS MON and so on have done quite well in the last 5 to 10 years compared to the S&P 500.

 

[FrostBead]

I question that property rights will be honored when we run head first into the resource contraints wall.

Isn't China already fragmenting the oil market with its acquisitions in Africa?

 

[morganist]

Quote from FrostBead:

I question that property rights will be honored when we run head first into the resource contraints wall.

Isn't China already fragmenting the oil market with its acquisitions in Africa?

Yeah. Arctic oil will be the next one.

 

[misterno]

Food commodities will never rise above inflation

Look at how they grow vegetables and fruits now, it costs so much less because of hormones steroids and chemicals but there is no taste anymore

now organic produce is a different story

 

[playmoney]

Quote from DT-waw:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-commodities-look-set-rocket-higher


The worlds population grows at 1% per year.
After 70 yrs it doubles. Guess by how much population will rise 350 yrs from now? 32 times.

We're talking 210 billion consumers.

In a year 2711?
900x more people than today.

The world cannot sustain that many people. The human population will reach an equilibrium with the world's resources. Widespread famine due to lack of production and transportation will stop the population from reaching such preposterous numbers.