Quote from ASusilovic:
Simple answer from my side :
when pain has reached a peak, it´s time to get back into markets. Not calling for a bottom. People have now realized that they have to adapt to the situation. And the first signs are not be overseen :
1) With disposable incomes rising faster than spending, the personal savings rate rose to 5%, the highest since March 1995. At an annual rate, personal savings rose to a record $545.5 billion.
2) U.S. Jan. consumer credit up $1.76 billion
U.S. Jan. consumer credit up at 0.8% rate
U.S. Jan consumer credit up after 3 months of sharp declines
3) ECB´s Stark said there are signs of improvement in money markets, noting that banks are borrowing less money from the ECB in its refinancing operations and that fewer institutions are participating in them.
4) Read this investor letter from a "frightened" hedge fund manager :
BEST BUYING SIGNAL EVER !
Absolute suicide watch
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/03/05/53238/absolute-suicide-watch/
I love to see PANIC in hedgefund manager´s eyes ! LOL !!!!
I truly hope we are nearing a bottom. My concerns are that we will look back at 2008 early 09 and think happy times from a civilian perspective.
The markets may rally short-term. But until Washington gets it crap toghether and either leads, follow or GTHO then I forsee burst rallys, followed by continued down trends.
I mean how do we price in.
CAP & TRADE, Nationalized Healthcare, $4trillion dollar budgets, and $2trillion dollar deficits., higher capital gains, higher small business taxes.
We are back to 1997 levels, but are we getting 1997 standard of living?
Also I truly believe that metrics going forward will mean nothing because whats passes for abnormal or short term thinking will be the norm.
Credit is dead..Companies and civilians are slowly adjusting to a world where credit plays a much smaller role. The credit problem isn't banks aren't lending..no one wants to truly borrow.
I've been looking at getting a used car, the dealers I've talked with say they are moving like crazy. New car sales are dead.
People still have needs but they will address it without debt. And debt was the source of our growth for the last 20 years. As usual markets got the signal debt is dead. But the government has not.