Quote from edfor:
Let me just start by saying I don't think I have any unique insights on this issue, so I'm not trying to antagonize anyone or accuse them of not being successful. I know this topic has probably been beat nearly to death, but I haven't really found much to go on yet. The question is, if you can consistently achieve returns that are high enough to make a living on a small account, then by simple compounding or managing others money why couldn't you quickly run that up to the billions? For example, a 40% annual return compounds to over 800 times the starting amount after twenty years. So your own money should build up really quickly, or you should be able to develop enough of a history that you could get other people to let you manage their money. After all, most actively managed mutual funds don't beat their indexes in the long-term, so if someone is consistently far exceeding them then they should be in high demand.
And as a corollary, if the pros who can devote all their time and resources to investing can't, on average, beat the market, then what chance does an individual have who may be doing it in their part time?
What are the refutations to these arguments, and what are some of the things I missed that do give the little guy an edge? Don't get me wrong, I really do want to believe I could make a living being a trader. It seems like the type of thing that, if it's possible, I would be very good at. I'm just worried about wasting a whole lot of my time to find out I was just dead money.