why can't I follow my system?

ym..

its a dead end...

I have tried reverse martingale...I have done string studies ad nauseum...I have tried it all...

I got all the books from Sweeney... Jones...Tharp...and others...

I think if you could track your losers and try to identify a rank....and your winners too...then you might be on the right track...

now this will not improve much...just a small percent...as you must increase you P/L ratio...and big adjustments just will not work...

and please do not overoptimize or go down that road...your system needs to remain loose, like the old NASCAR driver...Cale Yaroborough's suspension.

Quote from ymtrader:

Thx, Electric....

I have this site bookmarked, and use it every now and then as a sanity checker.
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Electric,

That's kinda my conclusion also.

I'm a probability guy, got my BSEE & an MBA...always been involved w/ #'s. I believe that if, over time, backwards and forward testing show a system to have a postive expectancy based on probabilities and statistics, then that's what you go with. I KNOW my system works, but I also know myself, and I am weak when it comes to being disciplined....at anything I"m afraid! :p

That is my bane in this existence, and what I must overcome to be as successful a trader as I know I can become.
 
Quote from ymtrader:

Hi Guys,

Good thought provoking comments by all, thank you.

Trader666, I have been having trouble creating a MCS excel spreadsheet that would help me to strengthen my MM techniques. I have run Monte Carlo sims in the past, w/ excel, that varies the win% over a certain range so that I can see what kind of variations in win% will still leave me a postive expectancy system w/ my current win/loss #'s.

Do you have any suggestions for setting up an MCS for MM optimization?
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You can't do decent MCS in excel unless you get an add-in with its own random number generator because the one in excel sucks.

This is a huge topic and way beyond what can be answered in one post... it could easily be a never ending thread by itself. I recommend you start by searching ET and then test what you learn in any of the innumerable MCS programs you can find by googling. No substitute for digging in and getting your hands dirty. I'd start by exploring the impact that different position sizing algorithms have on return and DD.

I realize that everyone on ET is a better trader than PTJ, but he shoots for an annual return/DD ratio of 3.
 
Try trading with less capital..or build your grub-stake...

start with a microscopic use of capital...work your way up and remain conservative...find your comfort zone...

Your a bodybuilder sculpting your body....

Michael B.

Quote from ymtrader:

Electric,

That's kinda my conclusion also.

I'm a probability guy, got my BSEE & an MBA...always been involved w/ #'s. I believe that if, over time, backwards and forward testing show a system to have a postive expectancy based on probabilities and statistics, then that's what you go with. I KNOW my system works, but I also know myself, and I am weak when it comes to being disciplined....at anything I"m afraid! :p

That is my bane in this existence, and what I must overcome to be as successful a trader as I know I can become.
More...
 
Quote from ElectricSavant:



I think if you could track your losers and try to identify a rank....and your winners too...then you might be on the right track...

now this will not improve much...just a small percent...as you must increase you P/L ratio...and big adjustments just will not work...
More...

I would tend to agree with most of electric's comments. Since losers are quite large relative to winners, its a good start to try and minimize them. Now i understand that an effort to reduce the average loser by tightening stops will adversely effect the win/loss ratio, but there is no easy way around that unless OP is willing to perhaps rank the losers as suggested and try to filter out the worse entries. Whether OP's "edge" is small or big is open for debate, but i'd focus on its sustainability before anything else.

As soon as the system stops working, will you know fast enough to prevent a big blow? Not putting down op's system but i am dubious at best.
 
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