why can't I follow my system?

attaboy...Now apply what is the "right approach" to your system trading and turn on that idea and reward yourself when you follow your system at all costs...the money will come...do the "right thing" ym...

Quote from ymtrader:

Indahook,
Thank you for your support.

Electric,
Again, thank you for your kind words, I hope your prediction turns out true! :) I have always felt that when asking for help/advice, the humble approach was the right approach.

Good trading to all.
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The real work will follow after mastering the execution skills needed in system trading. Do you know what that is?

It is when your system stops working...what to do then?..

Also ym you are a creative person...you have an additional problem...you need to temper your boredom somehow and you are in assembly line trading and it can't get much more boring...

Michael B.
 
Quote from ymtrader:

Hi Guys,

MCS?

My average loss is probably my biggest hurdle to get over. I know this system has a positive expectancy over time, but sometimes it's hard to trust it.
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Monte Carlo Simulation. I recommend you learn as much as you can about it and then run simulations varying money management parameters. This should help you learn how to best exploit your edge and give you more confidence to trade it.
 
This I could not disagree with more...


Quote from Trader666:

Monte Carlo Simulation. I recommend you learn as much as you can about it and then run simulations varying money management parameters. This should help you learn how to best exploit your edge and give you more confidence to trade it.
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maybe you're uncomfortable of that big loss that's just lurking around the corner... each loss will take you 3 wins to make it back... it's not easy on one's mind... :) i think automated system is the best answer to your problem.

pom
 
Quote from ElectricSavant:

This I could not disagree with more...
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Then you're just as clueless about MCS as you are about your "feeling" that his system is like gambling. There's a very exploitable edge, assuming his system trades frequently enough. Nearly every major hedge fund and financial institution on earth uses MCS for this kind of analysis.
 
Quote from ymtrader:


average win ~$2000
average loss ~$4800
max drawdown ~25%
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herein lies your problem. Trading a system where the average loss is this much bigger than the average win is harder on your psychology regardless of win/loss ratios, especially with a 25% drawdown. Apparently, you need a sustainable very high win/loss ratio to survive or make money consistently. The problem with such a small "edge" becomes whether you will realize your win/loss ratio is no longer sustainable before it is too late.

Best way as some others have suggested is to either have someone else/robot trade your system, or figure out a way to reduce your draws. Perhaps trade smaller as the draws won't be that dramatic. Not much help i know.
 
I have done extensive research with money management and have concluded...that Kelly...FRM....OptimalF...and various martingale strategies applied to strings or not...DO NOT WORK

Unless....


You rank your trade set ups as to their probabilities and then apply MM accordingly.

I have my own proprietary methods and I can assure you that there are a few (just a few) other traders that might agree with me and there are far more that disagree with me.

I cannot argue with you as I am unwillingly to share my work with you.

Michael B.

P.s. markets are random except for the trends...the length of the trends are random..The market is always trending in some time frame...





Quote from Trader666:

Then you're just as clueless about MCS as you are about your "feeling" that his system is like gambling. There's a very exploitable edge, assuming his system trades frequently enough. Nearly every major hedge fund and financial institution on earth uses MCS for this kind of analysis.
More...
 
Quote from rallymode:

herein lies your problem. Trading a system where the average loss is this much bigger than the average win is harder on your psychology regardless of win/loss ratios, especially with a 25% drawdown. Apparently, you need a sustainable very high win/loss ratio to survive or make money consistently. The problem with such a small "edge" becomes whether you will realize your win/loss ratio is no longer sustainable before it is too late.

Best way as some others have suggested is to either have someone else/robot trade your system, or figure out a way to reduce your draws. Perhaps trade smaller as the draws won't be that dramatic. Not much help i know.
More...

Drawdowns can be greatly reduced and this can easily be seen with MCS analysis. This thing has a profit factor of almost 2 BTW... if stable, I wouldn't call that a small edge.
 
Quote from Trader666:

Drawdowns can be greatly reduced and this can easily be seen with MCS analysis. This thing has a profit factor of almost 2 BTW... if stable, I wouldn't call that a small edge.
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Not here to argue with you, was just giving the OP my opinion as he seems to be having a tough time following his system. As far as i am concerned it is a small "edge" if an edge even exists.

Perhaps you can give him a suggestion instead of questioning my opinion.

Good trading.
 
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