Why base metals and other commodities don't crash...

[rosy2]

Quote from Rearden Metal:

How quickly they forget:

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/06/b...dad2b99f228e40&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss


Big Oil Find Is Reported Deep in Gulf
Published: September 6, 2006

An announcement yesterday by three oil companies of a successful production test in the Gulf of Mexico — potentially the largest American oil find in a generation — was seen by experts as ushering in a new era in ultra-deepwater offshore drilling.

find all the articles you want. theres a reason why commodity options are skewed to the upside while equities are skewed down

 

[PAPA ROACH]

This commodity bull is over for awhile. Nothing but a downtrend now for the next few years. We'll use the continuous CRB as the gauge of this.

 

[ess1096]

Quote from PAPA ROACH:

This commodity bull is over for awhile. Nothing but a downtrend now for the next few years. We'll use the continuous CRB as the gauge of this.

Jim Rogers said recently that the commodities bull usually runs about 14 years and that it's somewhere around the third inning. States demand from China will continue to drive commodities higher, specifically agriculture, with some corrections along the way of course.

 

[PAPA ROACH]

Quote from ess1096:

Jim Rogers said recently that the commodities bull usually runs about 14 years and that it's somewhere around the third inning. States demand from China will continue to drive commodities higher, specifically agriculture, with some corrections along the way of course.

Jim has the record to beat. I will still stick by my statement, I see a period of deflation on the forefront. Besides, a good portion of China's demand is to make shit for the US consumer. CRB has hit it's high.

 

[sumosam]

Quote from PAPA ROACH:

Jim has the record to beat. I will still stick by my statement, I see a period of deflation on the forefront. Besides, a good portion of China's demand is to make shit for the US consumer. CRB has hit it's high.

Agreed....real estate crash, then financial crash. Wasn't real estate considered a HARD ASSET that would only go up with inflation? The law of supply and demand rears its ugly head! (or not so ugly head)

 

[thriftybob]

Commodities prices are driven by demand, like anything else. If overal global demand slackens considerably, their value will decline.

That doesn't guarantee their value in US dollar terms will decline, however, because if the reason for the decline in demand is because the US went into recession, the value of the US dollar may decline quicker than the commodities.

Will they crash? Sure, but when, from how high, and to how low? And remember to adjust for the value of the dollar you are measuring with..

just my 2 cent opinion...

 

[commoditiestrdr]

Metals won't crash anytime soon....we have inflation. They eventually will though whenever the fed decides to control inflation

http://www.commoditiesvue.com

 

[Metal52]

Para Roach:

What deflation are you talking about? World governments are printing fiat currencies like crazy to flood the marketplace. There is too much liquidity and it is impossible to drain the liquidity. Where can the liquidity deflate to?

Commodity represent real value in something physically exist and has limited supply. Commodity can only go up, not going down. People need to eat and consume. The commodity bull will continue indefinitely until the currency crisis is over.

Where do you put your money if you have one trillion US dollars?

 

[crgarcia]

Quote from Doji7:

Why base metals and other commodities don't crash?

Baltic dry index plummeted.....

Because there's no recession.

And there wasn't much speculation on their prices before.