I’ve noticed a commodity I trade shows backwardation in the far forward contracts when there are no trades actually occurring. The spot price can rise some days and the far forward contracts may all drop. I understand that the mid range contracts may be dropping that day, but how does Nymex determine that the close of the far future contracts also fell when there were no trades? Some days it appears they even place the close price below the actual bid price. Any idea how they determine that could possibly be the case?
Why backwardation when no trades?
- Thread starter lorax2013
- Start date
I had a similar question. There’s a stock I follow that was up yesterday despite the rest of the market being down. I was wondering if someone could explain why.
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https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/files/NYMEX_Energy_Futures_Daily_Settlement_Procedure.pdf
Generally most markets for deferred contracts will be settled in a similar manner to the energies
Generally most markets for deferred contracts will be settled in a similar manner to the energies
What commodity is it? If you don’t mind me asking
Your Question is un-answerable because there are thousands of commodities
eg
rubber
copper
crude oil
PTFE
rice
soya
cocoa
palm oil
Do not be shy to tell us which commodity you are talking about.
Anyway, when the volume is around zero, don't bother to look at the price.
Because that data is useless / worthless / 'erroneous'.
Here’s a guess assuming the commodity you’re talking about is a seasonal agricultural one. The far out months could be getting into the next years crop. Backwardation is typically something I pay attention to in the closest 3 to 4 contract months but not into the next harvest season. For example: corn harvest in the US doesn’t start in full force until September. It’s expected for July corn futures to bring a premium over the next contract month because no new corn is being harvested yet. Grain buyers know that more corn will be available in the coming months so their bid is lower. True backwardation in corn would be something like the March contract trading higher than May, and May trading higher than July. The buyers need it sooner than later.