You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
Why are there people against disarming Iraq?
- Thread starter Vinny Gigante
- Start date
that I NEVER once in my life listened to rush limbaugh. never.
love Bill O'reilly though. and Howard Stern.
love Bill O'reilly though. and Howard Stern.
January 24, 2003
War Pricey - Defense Primed to Explode
Iraqi War preparations and defense catch-up will break the budget unless there is some reversal
in the nearly $2 tln in tax cuts planned over the next decade. Defense outlays were already on
the rise last year relative to almost all else as the US retaliated against the terrorists. Defense
spending rose 13% to $332.1 bln in FY2002 and is up 16% so far this year. Without any easing
in global tensions, the US will need to expand its military presence and modernize in order to
fight a 21st century war. No one will squeeze the military this decade. Thus, all parts of the
defense budget are set to rise sharply and spending could nearly double over the next 5 years.
Operations, maintenance, and personnel, together, account for about 2/3 of the military budget.
These costs are flexible and mount commensurate with military activity. About 150k troops
(both reserves and full time) are amassing in the Gulf. Even more may be moved to the area.
Moreover, every day, carriers, planes, tanks and ammo are ordered into the region to support
these forces. Even before the recent buildup, personnel costs were up 19% over last year?s
mobilization costs for the limited Afghan incursion. It is too early to say when this spending
will peak, given predictions of more terrorist attacks and new threats from North Korea.
Personnel in the line of fire are compensated for hazardous duty and they are generally given
larger pay increases. Reservists are cheaper but they are compensated for full time duty. If
there is a further force buildup to meet other global challenges or longer stays, personnel costs
will rise and could easily exceed $100 bln in the next few years. Operations and maintenance
will move in tandem with personnel, and are likely to cost $275-300 bln.
With these day-to-day operating costs running away, Rumsfeld has shelved plans to modernize
the military for now. But existing equipment is not even adequate for a protracted terrorist war.
Defense outlays were slashed during the 90?s and fell well below trend during that decade. As a
share of the budget, defense contracted from 28% of federal outlays to 16% in 98. Every major
defense category was cut but R&D and procurement took the biggest hits. They were slashed
from almost $200 bln in the mid 80?s to less than $90 bln in the mid 90?s. Rumsfeld wants to
reverse this underinvestment, incorporating new technology with the missile defense program.
This suggests procurement will be brought back to the mid 80?s levels or even exceed $200 bln
over the coming decade. New systems tend to be badly underestimated since production always
costs more than forecast and Congress tends not to cancel any program no matter what. Thus
defense spending which is now 18% of the budget is set to gobble up 25+% depending on how
quickly big non- defense spending rises. A runaway defense budget will only guarantee high
deficits over this decade and with homeland security and medical reform critical for the
domestic program, in time some reversal in the tax cuts is possible.
Copyright 2003. McCarthy, Crisanti & Maffei. All rights Reserved
War Pricey - Defense Primed to Explode
Iraqi War preparations and defense catch-up will break the budget unless there is some reversal
in the nearly $2 tln in tax cuts planned over the next decade. Defense outlays were already on
the rise last year relative to almost all else as the US retaliated against the terrorists. Defense
spending rose 13% to $332.1 bln in FY2002 and is up 16% so far this year. Without any easing
in global tensions, the US will need to expand its military presence and modernize in order to
fight a 21st century war. No one will squeeze the military this decade. Thus, all parts of the
defense budget are set to rise sharply and spending could nearly double over the next 5 years.
Operations, maintenance, and personnel, together, account for about 2/3 of the military budget.
These costs are flexible and mount commensurate with military activity. About 150k troops
(both reserves and full time) are amassing in the Gulf. Even more may be moved to the area.
Moreover, every day, carriers, planes, tanks and ammo are ordered into the region to support
these forces. Even before the recent buildup, personnel costs were up 19% over last year?s
mobilization costs for the limited Afghan incursion. It is too early to say when this spending
will peak, given predictions of more terrorist attacks and new threats from North Korea.
Personnel in the line of fire are compensated for hazardous duty and they are generally given
larger pay increases. Reservists are cheaper but they are compensated for full time duty. If
there is a further force buildup to meet other global challenges or longer stays, personnel costs
will rise and could easily exceed $100 bln in the next few years. Operations and maintenance
will move in tandem with personnel, and are likely to cost $275-300 bln.
With these day-to-day operating costs running away, Rumsfeld has shelved plans to modernize
the military for now. But existing equipment is not even adequate for a protracted terrorist war.
Defense outlays were slashed during the 90?s and fell well below trend during that decade. As a
share of the budget, defense contracted from 28% of federal outlays to 16% in 98. Every major
defense category was cut but R&D and procurement took the biggest hits. They were slashed
from almost $200 bln in the mid 80?s to less than $90 bln in the mid 90?s. Rumsfeld wants to
reverse this underinvestment, incorporating new technology with the missile defense program.
This suggests procurement will be brought back to the mid 80?s levels or even exceed $200 bln
over the coming decade. New systems tend to be badly underestimated since production always
costs more than forecast and Congress tends not to cancel any program no matter what. Thus
defense spending which is now 18% of the budget is set to gobble up 25+% depending on how
quickly big non- defense spending rises. A runaway defense budget will only guarantee high
deficits over this decade and with homeland security and medical reform critical for the
domestic program, in time some reversal in the tax cuts is possible.
Copyright 2003. McCarthy, Crisanti & Maffei. All rights Reserved