Why Are Popular Market Gurus Wrong?

[tradingjournals]

An argument would be that they are popular because they are wrong. Could you explain why this argument would be right or wrong? What is your argument? A corollary of the above argument: if one is successful in markets, he/she probably would not be popular in financial information, and might probably even be unpopular.

 

[zdreg]

Those who can do.
Those who can't teach.

Ernest Hemmingway

 

[Stosh]

No one knows the future, so when the guru is predicting, he may be right or wrong, but he is popular by being certain of his forecasts and inspiring faith and hope. Of course, his forecasts cleverly leave a lot of room for spinning the outcome....but when he is correct he shouts his results to the high heavens and when he is wrong he takes a low profile while people forget his forecasts. The truly successfull trader knows that his own predictions (bets) only have a slightly better than 50/50 chance of being accurate......so he would not be popular as a guru by stating this fact and the difficulties involved in becoming consistently successful. Stosh

 

[Robert Yanks]

Quote from zdreg:

Those who can do.
Those who can't teach.

Ernest Hemmingway

He who can, does. He who cannot, teaches.

Man and Superman (1903) "Maxims for Revolutionists"

George Bernard Shaw.

 

[nutmeg]

Quote from zdreg:

Those who can do.
Those who can't teach.

Ernest Hemmingway

Sometimes those who can do make lousy teachers.....

An example of those who can do but never bothered to teach anyone.


" Roman engineers mastered the technology and constructed seaports, aqueducts and temples of concrete as well. Some of these structures are as good as ever today, two thousand years later. But the formula for Roman cement was lost with the fall of the Roman empire."

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Sometimes those who can do cannot explain the pinciples of why what they do works. They just know that it does. For that we need teachers.

 

[drcha]

Quote from Stosh:

No one knows the future

The above is well worth repeating. That said, everyone wants to believe in magic. They want to believe that there is someone out there who knows the future. And, many of them just want someone they can follow. They like to think that Big Daddy--whatever form that takes--is going to watch out for them, so that they don't have to be responsible for themselves. If you are following someone else and you screw up, then you have someone (besides yourself) to blame, and many people find this comforting. So, my answer would be that unfortunately, this is human nature. Perhaps some of the participants on this site have transcended that particular human failing to some extent. I like to think so.

 

[Handle123]

Quote from nutmeg:

Sometimes those who can do make lousy teachers.....

It is not always the mentor's fault that students don't get it. You have methods that are taught, but the biggest hurl to overcome is the years that the student has lost money, so it becomes 10% methods and 90% psychology. Some of the folks I have taught know much more about the markets, how formulas are calculated than I ever wanted to know, but if they can't pull the trigger and stick to my rules, they start failing cause of fear. Their brain is structured to find all the losing trades cause that is where the brain is most happy still they have lost for so long. Then when they get into a trade that is profitable, they want to bail early cause their brain is SCREAMING I don't like this feeling, so instead of getting $400, they get out early with $75. I have often flown to students on my dime to teach more one on one, and that only gets worse cause they get super nervous and make even more mistakes.

I use to think it be easier to work with some that had been losing just a couple years, but that is very hard as well. Last year I took a true newbie, and it was so much easier, he had no bad habits to break.

And no, I don't charge and have my limit. And the why I do it cause trading is very lonesome endeavor and trading has become a job, there is little fun in it. But to take someone who has lost for years and start making money really floats my boat.

 

[Joovenile Jatt]

Popular market gurus are always bulls. If the market goes up, which it does most of the time, they look like world beaters. It's only now that they look terrible, but like bank traders they will stick to their strategy year upon year until the market goes up again and they can take their bonus of looking great. No Guru was talking of a collapse when the SP was at 1500, apart from maybe Tice and PRechter and they'd be saying it since SP 1200, so there you go.

 

[da-net]

Quote from Handle123:

It is not always the mentor's fault that students don't get it.

Do you find that explaining something to someone else actually forces you to think in greater detail thus improves your understanding of the subject?

 

[xporn_star]

when i was making adult films there were a few of us that followed stocks..even some of the girls were better stock pickers than some of the guru's on tv,it was amazing.