Why are oil prices so low?
- Thread starter Laissez Faire
- Start date
Easy. Things are worth what people are willing to pay for them - which is always dictated by need versus availability. We are awash in crude oil. The proven reserves for North America in terms of hydrocarbons impacts all aspects of worldwide commerce and geopolitical power and the ramifications and long-term implications are difficult to understate.
The global implications for the North American supply dynamic is shifting trillions of dollars in terms of individual consumer spending worldwide, has radically redistributed the GDP's for OPEC members, and profoundly weakened nation-states who have used hydrocarbons to impose their political will on their once-captive consumers.
The global implications for the North American supply dynamic is shifting trillions of dollars in terms of individual consumer spending worldwide, has radically redistributed the GDP's for OPEC members, and profoundly weakened nation-states who have used hydrocarbons to impose their political will on their once-captive consumers.
Will take half off at 44.25 for $5 profit. Should get there in a moment
putting on another short here at 44.80
will close this new position when we get down to 42.00
hope you use stops.
It's already given back all of teh gains from that silly bounce
it's got more to go down, too.
PS - nobody comments when I take 500 pips on the short, but when a new trade starts to show losses, people wanna comment!> lol. human nature!!
It's already given back all of teh gains from that silly bounce
it's got more to go down, too.
PS - nobody comments when I take 500 pips on the short, but when a new trade starts to show losses, people wanna comment!> lol. human nature!!
Well, commercial users ( eternally net short business model ) are buying calendar strips like crazy. Once the short specs have covered the producers will be selling again. The more time we spend in these price ranges, the more accepted the new valuation reality becomes. Sellers need buyers, as they get somewhat annoyed at having to constantly hit bids.
I'm sure you'll see quite a bit of spec short covering at $40, some support, commercial users buying even more strips and even a modest correction for a period of time. But my own personal past commercial and HF experiences in the energy markets has led me to the "path of pain" theorem when it comes to energy markets in particular.
There will be a point in time where the really big swinging dicks will make a sustained effort to drive and settle the market under $40 and into the 38 handle hunting stop sell orders. Because it's a free put.
The more time we spend trading the $40 price handle, the more accepted the valuation becomes and reality sets in. Today's pop is well within the longer term trendline established in July, and well within the confines of the daily historical vol and atr metrics we've seen since late November.
When in doubt, look at the longer term timeframes. All you'll see are lower lows and lower highs on both the Daily and Weekly. Corrections are modest, shallow, and quickly taken out lower. Order flow watchers will see sustained footprints of bids getting hit.
I'm a spread trader, and I have no earthly idea of where oil is going to be priced 5 minutes or 5 days or 5 weeks or 5 months from now. But energy is a humbling and cruel market space. And things are worth what people are willing to pay for them, and if you as an independent speculator get opinionated or gain an ounce of hubris - you are setting yourself up to get eviscerated.
There will be a point in time where the really big swinging dicks will make a sustained effort to drive and settle the market under $40 and into the 38 handle hunting stop sell orders. Because it's a free put.
The more time we spend trading the $40 price handle, the more accepted the valuation becomes and reality sets in. Today's pop is well within the longer term trendline established in July, and well within the confines of the daily historical vol and atr metrics we've seen since late November.
When in doubt, look at the longer term timeframes. All you'll see are lower lows and lower highs on both the Daily and Weekly. Corrections are modest, shallow, and quickly taken out lower. Order flow watchers will see sustained footprints of bids getting hit.
I'm a spread trader, and I have no earthly idea of where oil is going to be priced 5 minutes or 5 days or 5 weeks or 5 months from now. But energy is a humbling and cruel market space. And things are worth what people are willing to pay for them, and if you as an independent speculator get opinionated or gain an ounce of hubris - you are setting yourself up to get eviscerated.