"Not changing production" comes off as "we won't cut production to level the spot prices."
OPEC usually keeps their supplies in check to maintain their desired level of profitability. I've never attempted to quantitatively distill their pricing mechanism but I know that they do try to maintain a balance where they can produce the minimal amount at the highest possible per unit price without causing the customers to leave and go elsewhere. Since they are the market and pretty much collude with one another, they can do so.
But now the customers can go elsewhere - we are entering an era of abundant energy - energy extracted from shale, corn, sugar, biomass, algae and pretty much any organic compound with a carbon composition (biochemists will tell you that's pretty much every and any natural resource on earth). Refineries and other crude oil purchasers have been investing in capital equipments that can refine and utilize these other sources of energy (albeit they have not economically scaled these operations yet). These capex investments have, by and large, encouraged borrowing and, in turn, investing in the shale boom (I suggest looking into the high yield markets).
To echo Landis82, the crude supply shock forces the CAPEX to be cut (or under the threat of being) - so Landis82, do you see dividends being threatened as well? I do believe in the bird in the hand theory and that, for the diversified energy companies at least, their dividend discontinuations are only temporary while the smart money temporarily rotate to higher dividend yields (think GM in 09').
