Why are many posters on ET afflicted with the Dunning Kreuger effect?

[ElCubano]

I think it's very easy to fool yourself in trading. Many of the people here who are trying to fool others actually fooled themselves first and still believes their own nonsense, even though their broker account tells a different story.

Then you have those who never made it or at least didn't make it big, but which enjoys lecturing and acting the role of the guru - maybe gathering a small crowd of followers which makes them feel good about themselves.

Then you have those that don't know much about trading who knocked it out of the park for being at the right place at the right time.

 

[NoahA]

Then you have those that don't know much about trading who knocked it out of the park for being at the right place at the right time.

Its called beginners luck, and this is very difficult to re-create and maintain. If you're lucky enough to hit it big and walk away then fine, but most will end up giving up all the initial winnings and then dig a deep hole until they finally admit that the initial good streak was just random.

 

[Laissez Faire]

Then you have those that don't know much about trading who knocked it out of the park for being at the right place at the right time.

Great point. There must be quite a few individuals who knocked it out of the park on that one trade/investment or simply started trading around very favorable conditions.

I once saw a video of an investor turned trader. Sold his appartment, invested all the money and took big losses going into the financial crisis in 07/08.

I have a real life friend who did the exact same move, but in 2010. Same strategy, but a hugely different outcome.

 

[Sprout]

Great point. There must be quite a few individuals who knocked it out of the park on that one trade/investment or simply started trading around very favorable conditions.

I once saw a video of an investor turned trader. Sold his appartment, invested all the money and took big losses going into the financial crisis in 07/08.

I have a real life friend who did the exact same move, but in 2010. Same strategy, but a hugely different outcome.

While this is from a CT account, Lucky Larry was pretty lucky;

“
When It Comes To Financial Windfalls Of Disasters, Someone In America ALWAYS Knows What’s About To Happen

On September 11, We Remember Lucky Larry Silverstein

- Acquires 99-year lease for Twin Towers just 6 weeks before 9/11
- Insures both towers for $3.2 billion against acts of terrorism and ensures he can build new WTC complex if destroyed.
- Wife allegedly convinces him to attend dermatologist appointment on morning of 9/11 instead of scheduled meeting in North Tower
- Twin Towers attacked, collapsing to dust along with his other skyscraper (WTC 7), all plummeting at near free-fall speed
- Files insurance claim for $7 billion, arguing attacks on Twin Towers consisted of 2 separate events thus double compensation required
- Settles for $4.5 billion compensation on Twin Towers and collects millions in other insurance payouts
- Builds new WTC complex”

https://x.com/wallstreetapes/status/1701114796584865950?s=46&t=RtbvMjSZB-E4IMCIlJrlWA

 

[murray t turtle]

While this is from a CT account, Lucky Larry was........;

“
When It Comes To Financial Windfalls Of Disasters, Someone In America ALWAYS'' Knows'' What’s About To Happen

On September 11, We Remember'' Lucky'' Larry Silverstein

- Acquires 99-year lease for Twin Towers just 6 weeks before 9/11
- Insures both towers for $3.2 billion against acts of terrorism and ensures he can build new WTC complex if destroyed.
- Wife allegedly convinces him to attend dermatologist appointment on morning of 9/11 instead of scheduled meeting in North Tower
- Twin Towers attacked, collapsing to dust along with his other skyscraper (WTC 7), all plummeting at near free-fall speed
- Files insurance claim for $7 billion, arguing attacks on Twin Towers consisted of 2 separate events thus double compensation required
- Settles for $4.5 billion compensation on Twin Towers and collects millions in other insurance payouts
- Builds new WTC complex”

https://x.com/wallstreetapes/status/1701114796584865950?s=46&t=RtbvMjSZB-E4IMCIlJrlWA

%%
Good read;
does anyone honesty think any of that was luck??
And ''knows'' LOL \ thats why he scheduled meeting @ worst time; wife maybe did not know/but good female intuition anyway LOL
IF he really ''knew '',would not need insurance @ all,+he could own the whole world[for sale anyway] if he ''knew''. Get real.

 

[NoahA]

I have a real life friend who did the exact same move, but in 2010. Same strategy, but a hugely different outcome.

The worst part is that this second friend will think they are brilliant and a savvy investor/trader.

 

[murray t turtle]

The worst part is that this second friend will think they are brilliant and a savvy investor/trader.

%%
EXACTLY;
unless they are a wise investor- trader +find out the wise way NOT to put ''all the money'' 100% into anything, even if they won once doing dumb stuff like that.LOL
Like Warren buffet noted, when Noah built the Ark it was NOT raining

 

[Sprout]

%%
Good read;
does anyone honesty think any of that was luck??
And ''knows'' LOL \ thats why he scheduled meeting @ worst time; wife maybe did not know/but good female intuition anyway LOL
IF he really ''knew '',would not need insurance @ all. Get real.

I’m a recovering 9/11 inside job truther - no longer going down rabbit holes.

Lot’s of good (and rational) info in this vid about WTC 7;

https://x.com/brentleesdcic/status/1647749917601873922?s=46&t=RtbvMjSZB-E4IMCIlJrlWA

 

[comagnum]

Speaking of luck on 9-11.

On 9-10, the day prior to 911, Donald Rumsfeld in front of the press was pissed off - the Pentagon could not account for $2.3T which back than was larger than the entire governments annual budget.

The damage done on 911 to the Pentagon happened to be where their accounting computers were located, the only backups were at the WTC - the paper trail for the missing $2.3T was completely destroyed at different locations, how lucky is that?

The Pentagon in one day went from being under a major investigation over the missing $2.3T, to having it overlooked & a new budget to the moon. 911 was the ultimate miracle for the pentagon.

 

[Sprout]

Speaking of luck on 9-11.

On 9-10, the day prior to 911, Donald Rumsfeld in front of the press was pissed off - the Pentagon could not account for $2.3T which back than was larger than the entire governments annual budget.

The damage done on 911 to the Pentagon happened to be where their accounting computers were, the only backups were at the WTC - the paper trail for the missing $2.3T was completely destroyed at different locations, how lucky is that?

The Pentagon in one day went from being under a major investigation to having their missing $2.3T overlooked & a budget to the moon. 911 was the ultimate miracle for the pentagon.

More fodder for Conspiracy Theories but this one certainly looks like it has legs. There was also a huge options trade that lost the paper trail during that event, I forget the details.