Why a traditional tecnical analyst cannot trade

[OddTrader]

Quote from harrytrader:



As I said in another thread http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=21815&perpage=6&pagenumber=2
although my model is a quantitative finance model it is perhaps the only one that makes the bridge with traditional TA (in fact it is not only the bridge it is the whole Unification of Efficient Market Theory, Dow and Elliott theories. Underneath is in fact the modern evolution of Dow Theory) contrary to the massive current trend of quantitative finance who makes adoration of the Ito lemma - which I would rather consider as the biblical origin of their sin : most quants are heretics for me and should be judged by the Inquisition .

Save your time and energy on ET to write-up/publish a book like they did, or no trader would still remember your name 50 years later.

 

[illiquid]

Ironic that harry wants to tell everyone here about his holy grail; even more ironic is that no one understands what he is talking about, and this will be the real reason why, if his method does work, it will continue to work.

Face it harry, your attempt at making your analyses as outdated as the traditionial TA you despise is utterly futile, so just resign yourself to the drudgery of making money.

 

[maxpi]

Quote from Runningbear:

I have no idea why any of that means, however your charts look very impressive Harry.

Runningbear

It means Harry is the sane one and all the rest of us are crazy

 

[mg_mg]

Quote from harrytrader:

Is it possible ? I say yes and I will show that with a true modelisation of market (by true I mean a causal economic model and not extrapolation and fuzzy explanation by psychology of crowd) it is possible to have a precise evaluation of a break zone for example. Here's an illustration:

http://tinyurl.com/mlpa


So for the example (the url above doesn't seem to work anymore then see http://www.econometric-wave.com/mar...slideshow4.html) :

All links unaccessible now, can you repost again? Thanks.

 

[harrytrader]

There must be a technical problem about security file on the server (because we prepare to change the old password system) I will look at it thanks.

Quote from mg_mg:



All links unaccessible now, can you repost again? Thanks.

 

[harrytrader]

We have bounced as expected on 9370 (although not totally reached on spot since we stopped at 9380 instead it was reached on future) and this consolidation corresponds to the expected consolidation of 9405 on UPPER scale (WEEKLY) - chart I posted well before on 4th September see http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=21762&perpage=6&pagenumber=3

Current update of the STATIC analysis of weekly scale not daily scale (and I won't surcharge with the DYNAMIC analysis):
<IMG SRC=http://www.econometric-wave.com/consolidation_on_weekly_scale.gif>

Comment here:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=21762&perpage=6&pagenumber=5

Quote from harrytrader:



But if you had made the effort to understand the slideshow about the 02/09/03 forecast for next days (since it is daily scale and there are ten points that is to say roughly 10 days but it can be 5 to 15 days because "time" can compress/decompress - in fact time doesn't exist really in the model it is an artefact but that's another story hee hee) you would not be surprised if the close yesterday below 9523.16 - confirmed by the opening below this level at opening - resulted in a great plunge today that accelerated below the max base of 9455. Since I talk in this thread about monitoring a plan with dynamic analysis you can see that the plan today (most right picture) was coherent with the plan of 02/09/03 (most left picture) since we close below 9521.88 and so are completely on the blue descending consolidation line.

<IMG SRC=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=328311>

 

[goldenarm]

The longer your time frame or the wider your stops, the less you are bothered by whipsaws and other "noise". A pure technical analyst will be an effective trader if he adheres to his system and exercises sound risk and money management. Charts will tell you what kind of whipsaws you can expect for a given stock and allow you to adjust your stops and profit expectations accordingly. It doesn't matter if you choose Elliot theory, Fibonacci retracements, stochastics, oscillators, throw darts on a wall, etc.

Harrytrader is making trading a lot more complicated than it really is with his esoteric mumbo jumbo. This is the kind of mathematical gibberish that got Long-Term Capital in trouble and perpetuates the myth that superior math skills produce great traders. The simpler trend-following systems that utilize multiple time frames are the most effective. During choppy or slow markets, be extremely selective or park your cash in a money market fund.

Keep It Simple, Stupid!

 

[harrytrader]

I don't know why I suppose the programmer has put a protection on it so I created a new directory here:

http://www.econometric-wave.com/elitetrader/slideshow4.html

Quote from mg_mg:



All links unaccessible now, can you repost again? Thanks.

 

[Lobster]

Quote from harrytrader:

There must be a technical problem

Boy howdy! This is the first time in my life that I have had a double error surfing the internet: "Additionally, a 404 Not Found error was encountered while trying to use an ErrorDocument to handle the request."

 

[mg_mg]

Thanks, your method sounds different and interesting, looking forward to seeing your posts.

Quote from harrytrader:

I don't know why I suppose the programmer has put a protection on it so I created a new directory here:

http://www.econometric-wave.com/elitetrader/slideshow4.html