Who's stupid enough to be shorting these levels?

[athlonmank8]

Quote from LL8054:

1.) you don't trade full time. on another thread you said you started with $800 and are up 130% on the year for 08? yeah, you're not a full time trader.

2.) you could have been doing it for 60 years but it doesn't mean anything if you've only been profitable for the last 2 months.

3.) in a bear market apparently you're going to get eaten alive. you don't even recognize this is a bear market, incredible.

they always talk about the last sucker at the table. i'm glad there are a few left.

I think you're lost (and a little strange).....Let me help you.

Quote from athlonmank8:

Well I'm dead wrong. System is fucked. Well-deserved too.

As for my part. My hedges should keep me even(hopefully). ILMN puts still moving up and AMZN needs to tank (gonna maybe add a few more here).

This fall should be pretty big. It's gonna take out the big stops IMO.

Well done guys on the short side. You deserve it and there's more to come for ya.

Now how do I turn this crummy boat around

A good one is sallie mae. It's toast

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=134767&highlight=SLM

 

[shortie]

Quote from shortie:

03-02-09 02:17 PM

Quote from shortie:

02-28-09 11:10 AM

Quote from shortie:

VIX and call/put are about at the same level as the were on Feb-09. not a big deal, except that SPY was 14% HIGHER back then!

can SPY really drop 14% in a couple of weeks?




FEB-27 Update: SPY -2.2%, VIX +4% (did not really budged), call/put +44% at 0.98 (still not at the extreme of recent bottoms).

How are the major sectors doing? Most near or below Nov-2008 lows: SPY, DIA, XLF, XLE. Only QQQQ is noticeably above the previous year lows.

The bottom line: the sentiment is WAY TOO Bullish. I am forced to conclude that there is more downside near term.




March-02 Update: Now we are getting somewhere as far as the extreme pessimism goes (but still SOMEWHAT extreme only it seems).

SPY -4.5%, VIX +14% ~53, call/put 1.07

i am worried about the bulls here. as we drift lower, there are no spikes in VIX and call/put.

 

[shortie]

Quote from shortie:

02-28-09 11:10 AM

Quote from shortie:

VIX and call/put are about at the same level as the were on Feb-09. not a big deal, except that SPY was 14% HIGHER back then!

can SPY really drop 14% in a couple of weeks?




FEB-27 Update: SPY -2.2%, VIX +4% (did not really budged), call/put +44% at 0.98 (still not at the extreme of recent bottoms).

How are the major sectors doing? Most near or below Nov-2008 lows: SPY, DIA, XLF, XLE. Only QQQQ is noticeably above the previous year lows.

The bottom line: the sentiment is WAY TOO Bullish. I am forced to conclude that there is more downside near term.

SPY dropped ~6% after the above post. Yet, VIX and call/put did NOT really move up. We need some sort of capitulation to start moving noticeably higher. Where is the fear?

SPY, DIA, XLF at new lows today.
VIX ~50

 

[Ivanovich]

I honestly think there won't be a capitulation, but what do I know? We may just have a steady bleed out until there's just nothing left but people/funds who have just resigned themselves that this is the way it's going to be, and they're done selling and will just have to wait 20 years for it to come back.

 

[sirgiyan]

Quote from shortie:

SPY dropped ~6% after the above post. Yet, VIX and call/put did NOT really move up. We need some sort of capitulation to start moving noticeably higher. Where is the fear?

SPY, DIA, XLF at new lows today.
VIX ~50

That's exactly the question I'm asking myself. put/call ratio should reach november levels for me to believe we have arrived to some sort of a bottom...

BTW, the online charts for PUT/CALL I use have 12 hour delay. Can you suggest any online service providing those faster?

 

[number22]

All these number are skewed in so many way; for example; GE's debts are trading like triple Bs, yet its rating still stand at triple As. And they just cut JP Morgan's rating. It just tells you how shity of market is.

Just stay out their way. They are rushing shits all over the streets. Widows; orphans and retirees, people who rely on fixed income will be on line for bail out next.

 

[TGregg]

Quote from athlonmank8 from 02-23-09 02:23 PM:

I'm as bearish as anyone, but we've got 2-300 points downside max. I'm not dumb but i know many of you are.

I want to see how many ET geniuses are shorting this thing.

2/23 Dow Close 7,114.78
Today 6,594.44
Difference 520.34

Looks like the geniuses were right, and most of us are smarter than you.

 

[Now is Now]

Quote from TGregg:

2/23 Dow Close 7,114.78
Today 6,594.44
Difference 520.34

Looks like the geniuses were right, and most of us are smarter than you.

Maybe he was talking about the S&P 500....

 

[matgallis]

Quote from Ivanovich:

I honestly think there won't be a capitulation, but what do I know? We may just have a steady bleed out until there's just nothing left but people/funds who have just resigned themselves that this is the way it's going to be, and they're done selling and will just have to wait 20 years for it to come back.

Seriously,

There can't be a capitulation when there are strong expectations the government will step in at in moment.

 

[bridenour]

All this talk of an imminent bounce is bullshit...yes, that is how things normally work. And, i won't be surprised if it happens here, but...

The reality is there is serious, significant and ongoing deleveraging/forced-selling taking place, and so there absolutely does not have to be a bounce. The market could continue straight down into the 5k's (on the DOW).

If there is going to be a bear market rally (which everyone seems to be suggesting MUST happen, another bad sign), there also must be some reasonable catalyst for it...and the reality is, given how quickly things are unraveling, we may not get a catalyst for next 30-60 days, which at the current selling pace would quickly find us down another 1000 points on the Dow.


Then again, we could get a surprise (false hope) on the employment report tomorrow and get the rally everyone is expecting. It could happen.

But, with the forced selling, I would probably put my money on continued, unabated downtrend (or, just stay on the sidelines).

I'm looking for 5000-5500 before a bounce, but im prepared for one that shows up sooner.