Who's stupid enough to be shorting these levels?

[traderyin]

Quote from shortie:

FEB-27 Update: SPY -2.2%, VIX +4% (did not really budged), call/put +44% at 0.98 (still not at the extreme of recent bottoms).

How are the major sectors doing? Most near or below Nov-2008 lows: SPY, DIA, XLF, XLE. Only QQQQ is noticeably above the previous year lows.

The bottom line: the sentiment is WAY TOO Bullish. I am forced to conclude that there is more downside near term.

So these indicators are telling you this is the quiet before the storm.

 

[shortie]

Quote from traderyin:

So these indicators are telling you this is the quiet before the storm.

it's a good way to put it.

does not mean we should go straight down. but an upside is limited since there is not enough fear to form a meaningful bottom.

 

[Bolimomo]

Quote from shortie:
The bottom line: the sentiment is WAY TOO Bullish. I am forced to conclude that there is more downside near term. [/B]

You said the sentiment is WAY TOO Bullish. I don't understand why there is more downside near term. Did you mean they are way too bearish?

 

[shortie]

Quote from Bolimomo:

You said the sentiment is WAY TOO Bullish. I don't understand why there is more downside near term. Did you mean they are way too bearish?

i am taking a contrarian point of view.

the bottom forms when everyone is too bearish. this is why the markets tend to overshoot to the downside and quickly reverse. because once everyone is way too bearish (no more new sellers left), any uplift creates a short covering and a huge rally.

 

[athlonmank8]

Quote from dave74:

I give you full credit for your honesty. I was right about you being really young.

Let me get this straight. Are you saying you're paying for 2 people's rent and other monthly bills solely with your trading profits?

Thanks.

Nah, I kinda wish that was thecase but it's not. My current job makes up about 60-70% of it. This has just been a fun hobby for years. But I am profitable which is nice. But for the amount of money it's kind of worthless

I'm a finance major who can't graduate until I get an internship.

here's more on my situation. Obviously that thread turned out similar to this. It's why I can't take ET seriously.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=148873

 

[athlonmank8]

Well I'm dead wrong. System is fucked. Well-deserved too.

As for my part. My hedges should keep me even(hopefully). ILMN puts still moving up and AMZN needs to tank (gonna maybe add a few more here).

This fall should be pretty big. It's gonna take out the big stops IMO.

Well done guys on the short side. You deserve it and there's more to come for ya.

Now how do I turn this crummy boat around

A good one is sallie mae. It's toast

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=134767&highlight=SLM

 

[LL8054]

Quote from athlonmank8:

1. I do trade full time.

2. I've probably been doing this for twice as long as you have

3. What do we do in a bear market?

#1 the market isn't in a "bear market" stage yet.

#2 you sell the rallies

PS....GL hombre

1.) you don't trade full time. on another thread you said you started with $800 and are up 130% on the year for 08? yeah, you're not a full time trader.

2.) you could have been doing it for 60 years but it doesn't mean anything if you've only been profitable for the last 2 months.

3.) in a bear market apparently you're going to get eaten alive. you don't even recognize this is a bear market, incredible.

they always talk about the last sucker at the table. i'm glad there are a few left.

 

[murray t turtle]

Quote from athlonmank8:

1. I do trade full time.

2. I've probably been doing this for twice as long as you have

3. What do we do in a bear market?

#1 the market isn't in a "bear market" stage yet.

#2 you sell the rallies

====================
Agree the silver/related '' isn't in a bear market'' [nice up-trend];
DIA, SPY has been/is in a bear trend,
still is is premarket today .

And still strange, it is not ''climate change''
========================
looks like'' climate same ''in some places.
Dust bowl in 1930's. Drought declaration in CA, drought in 7 counties in TN;
1988 drought started in fall/winter of 1987.

 

[shortie]

Quote from shortie:

02-28-09 11:10 AM

Quote from shortie:

VIX and call/put are about at the same level as the were on Feb-09. not a big deal, except that SPY was 14% HIGHER back then!

can SPY really drop 14% in a couple of weeks?




FEB-27 Update: SPY -2.2%, VIX +4% (did not really budged), call/put +44% at 0.98 (still not at the extreme of recent bottoms).

How are the major sectors doing? Most near or below Nov-2008 lows: SPY, DIA, XLF, XLE. Only QQQQ is noticeably above the previous year lows.

The bottom line: the sentiment is WAY TOO Bullish. I am forced to conclude that there is more downside near term.

March-02 Update: Now we are getting somewhere as far as the extreme pessimism goes (but still SOMEWHAT extreme only it seems).

SPY -4.5%, VIX +14% ~53, call/put 1.07

 

[tradersboredom]

daytraders and short term traders are shorting.

position shorters dont' short here.

Quote from athlonmank8:

I'm as bearish as anyone, but we've got 2-300 points downside max. I'm not dumb but i know many of you are.

I want to see how many ET geniuses are shorting this thing.