Who's stupid enough to be shorting these levels?

State your business

  • Short, we're toast

    Votes: 118 61.8%

  • Long, USA isn't going anywhere

    Votes: 35 18.3%

  • Short NOW converted to long

    Votes: 29 15.2%

  • Long NOW converted to short

    Votes: 9 4.7%
  • Total voters
    191
Quote from womblevader:
My plan is to gradually accumulate down to 600 and just let it sit there for 1-2 years, and just keep trading FX.
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This plan doesn't make sense to me. If you know the index is not going to move up for 1-2 years, why tie up your capital buying it now? Wouldn't you be better off buying it in 1-2 year?
 
VIX and call/put are about at the same level as the were on Feb-09. not a big deal, except that SPY was 14% HIGHER back then!

can SPY really drop 14% in a couple of weeks?

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Quote from matgallis:

taken from wikipedia

VIX is the ticker symbol for the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, a popular measure of the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options. A high value corresponds to a more volatile market and therefore more costly options, which can be used to defray risk from volatility.[1] If investors see high risks of a change in prices, they require a greater premium to insure against such a change by selling options. Often referred to as the fear index, it represents one measure of the market's expectation of volatility over the next 30 day period.


So you bought when premium was the highest. A falling vix is not good for your "long" position
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I know that. But Vega's (that's the word you should be using) only a small portion of the option pricing.

not only that, but you're wrong all together pretty much. Options are priced off their on IV and HV for the most part with $vix playing a role WITH that. AKA not a big deal.

I bought these options a few days ago....not when the $vix was at the highs.
 
Quote from ogarbitrage:

If you were long calls from Feb 20, then you've lost on two fronts: vol and theta. Yea, this may be a temp bottom, but every intraday rally seems to get sold and the collapse in VIX on the 24th was way too premature to really hold water.

I think that dam is getting weaker by the tick.
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Exactly that's what he's not getting. I didn't get into these things until a few days ago.

I took some profits today and actually added a new put? If i'm doing something wrong here please inform me.

I sold USB for a 150% gain as well as ESV for 100% leaving quite a bit (mostly money) on the table at the moment.

Options are mis-priced anyways by a normal curve.
 
Quote from athlonmank8:

It's alright, you won't have to worry about me if we go down. I'm pretty sure a stop under yesterday's low is sufficient for me (and you'd agree). Until then i'm golden.

haha account size? Because that makes a difference on trading. Yeah sure.

I'm a 23 graduate server (refusing to get a job because i'm not working for the fuck-faces on wall-street) paying for 2 people's rent and utilities as well as several monthly bills (brother's). I'm sorry if I'm not in the 1/2 million dollar range yet.

With that said I have been doing this for ten years (most not profitably until 2-3 years ago) and if you want to see my calls then go ahead and see for yourself. Feel free to post up all of my "losing" comments. Bash me with my info :) In fact, i'll post it up in a bit....



Now about that account size thing. It's small. That what you want to hear? :) Do I care? Fuck no
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I give you full credit for your honesty. I was right about you being really young.

Let me get this straight. Are you saying you're paying for 2 people's rent and other monthly bills solely with your trading profits?
 
Quote from Redneck trader:

Well lets see - today the S&P told me to go long and short

So today I was only half stupid - Hmmm - I'm still okay with that:)


Take Care
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Did the same today - so I claim to be half ass-smart (make up for yesterday)


Who knows tomorrow I may be all stupid.. or all smart - or half and half... we'll just have to see

Take Care
 
Quote from shortie:

VIX and call/put are about at the same level as the were on Feb-09. not a big deal, except that SPY was 14% HIGHER back then!

can SPY really drop 14% in a couple of weeks?
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FEB-27 Update: SPY -2.2%, VIX +4% (did not really budged), call/put +44% at 0.98 (still not at the extreme of recent bottoms).

How are the major sectors doing? Most near or below Nov-2008 lows: SPY, DIA, XLF, XLE. Only QQQQ is noticeably above the previous year lows.

The bottom line: the sentiment is WAY TOO Bullish. I am forced to conclude that there is more downside near term.
 
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