Who's Bearish?

Quote from OPTIONAL777:



Event risk? You mean like earnings, unemployment, GDP, industrial production, the dollar?
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Event Risk = Hussein or Bin Laden still alive lauch a terror attack on US interest. Or, Thai Bhat get's devalued, causing currency reprercusions around the world, etc.

IMHO, most of what you have stated I would not deem event risk. That is normal every day risk that is essentially absorbed and priced into the market in at most no more than a week or so.

Event risks, when they are realized, alter the conciousness of the markets for months or more.

nitro
 
Quote from nitro:


Event Risk = Hussein or Bin Laden still alive lauch a terror attack on US interest. Or, Thai Bhat get's devalued, causing currency reprercusions around the world, etc.

IMHO, most of what you have stated I would not deem event risk. That is normal every day risk that is essentially absorbed and priced into the market in at most no more than a week or so.

Event risks, when they are realized, alter the conciousness of the markets for months or more.

nitro
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What was the event risk at 5100 on the NASDAQ on March 24th 2000?
 
Quote from OPTIONAL777:



What was the event risk at 5100 on the NASDAQ on March 24th 2000?
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Event risks, by my definition, are unknown before hand. Therefore, there was no event risk, at least in a classical sense of the term as applied by me that was the NASDAQ's downfall. Instead, it was a bubble of Titanic proportions unwinding itself - albeit a "KNOWN" one.


nitro
 
Euro now trading 1.1529 to US$. German banks are predicting down to 1.22. If the dollar turns around will we see a big sell off. In reverse of what we're seeing right now.
 
Quote from nitro:


Event risks, by my definition, are unknown before hand. Therefore, there was no event risk, at least in a classical sense of the term as applied by me that was the NASDAQ's downfall. Instead, it was a bubble of Titanic proportions unwinding itself - albeit a "KNOWN" one.


nitro
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What about bubbles the size of the S.S. Minnow?

ssminnow.jpg
 
Lets see what gold does this week. Gold keeps saying that we are gonna turn the dollar into confetti. Do you think that foreign investors will stick around while this happens? Look at our dollar. The smart money is already realizing this and fleeing. I just don't understand why the bonds are not pricing this in.

Greenspan has said that he wants to see inflation. I think we should trust his ability to create inflation, I mean he spent a decade trying to fight inflation with pretty poor results. He knows how to create it.

On a side note, does anyone know the qchart symbols for the euro and the yen are?
 
Who's gonna be the first to want to peg their currency to gold. I bet Greenspan will jump at this with the "rational" explanation that we need normalcy. Obviously somewhere Euro 1.30 he's going to panic and fuck things again.
 
Praetorian, do you read Bill Fleckenstein on RM. His main thesis right now is that of a dollar crisis (and inflation) later this year, when, in his mind, it becomes clear that the Fed is actually powerless to jumpstart this economy and we will have no choice but to acknowledge the structural problems of our economy that go far beyond what we have been attributing them to : 9/11, Iraq, Bad Weather, Corporate Corruption etc.. P

As long as we're talking about non-technical factors, I read a pretty amazing stat that I am surprised has not been more focused upon. Recent earnings were up 14% year over year, but over half of this increase was from energy companies, who saw their profits explode as oil spiked. Much of this rally has been based on "better than expected earnings" - but combine energy profits with general cost-cutting measures (not rev. growth) and 1st quarter earnings don't look nearly as impressive.

all of this is reality (and it's bearish) but not the market's perception of reality, yet.
 
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