One fact is everyone is as nervous as hell. Another fact is I doubt anyone pimping funds and stocks will convince the masses to invest "long term". The past three years has changed that mindset , maybe for the rest of our lifetime. We have to be NIMBLE, in and out. No more pickling stock.
Who's Bearish?
- Thread starter The Answer
- Start date
Thankyou all.
Great chart 777. I am looking at all that resistance at 950, and that is part of the reason that I am over 100% short. Markets almost never get through significant resistance after a strong run. The stoch on the daily is over 80 still. I think the Stoch is a great indicator, and I use it a lot. Every indicator I know is saying we purge soon. The only problem is that everyone I talk to is negative. I really can't find many bulls out there, and the plain vanilla gorilla institutional money doesn't feel like it's out there.
I think a lot of what we are seeing is performance anxiety from managers. We are almost half way through the year, and people need some results. As a result, there is some chasing. I just don't see hardcore buying really, or at least, I don't see it from the normal people who I talk with regularly.
Who else out here is bullish? Do you have any rationalle besides the hope of a second half recovery? I personally cannot find much that is cheap besides the dozen or so core stocks in my fund. They are all up 20%+ in the past 6 weeks, and are no longer even that cheap.
Another interesting indicator is at the valueinvestorsclub site. The reading of 24 is one of the lowest out there and indicates that a large group of really exceptional value investors cannot find much value. Usually this indicator is in the mid 30's or higher.
Great chart 777. I am looking at all that resistance at 950, and that is part of the reason that I am over 100% short. Markets almost never get through significant resistance after a strong run. The stoch on the daily is over 80 still. I think the Stoch is a great indicator, and I use it a lot. Every indicator I know is saying we purge soon. The only problem is that everyone I talk to is negative. I really can't find many bulls out there, and the plain vanilla gorilla institutional money doesn't feel like it's out there.
I think a lot of what we are seeing is performance anxiety from managers. We are almost half way through the year, and people need some results. As a result, there is some chasing. I just don't see hardcore buying really, or at least, I don't see it from the normal people who I talk with regularly.
Who else out here is bullish? Do you have any rationalle besides the hope of a second half recovery? I personally cannot find much that is cheap besides the dozen or so core stocks in my fund. They are all up 20%+ in the past 6 weeks, and are no longer even that cheap.
Another interesting indicator is at the valueinvestorsclub site. The reading of 24 is one of the lowest out there and indicates that a large group of really exceptional value investors cannot find much value. Usually this indicator is in the mid 30's or higher.
Make what you will of it, but Munder was on CNBC this week.
The SEC should spend more time investigating how he could loose 90% in 2 years, instead of hedge funds, but that's a different story. Anyway, he was touting a bunch of internet penny stocks. He even used the words Gramm and Dodd in a sentence describing burn rates. The poor guys must be rolling in their graves.
In this week's barrons, there is an interview with a tech investor who calls for a "supernova rally" whatever that is....
I can go on and on...
This is usually market top behavior, just like when CNBC does a special on shorting (which acutally aired the day before the october bottom).
The SEC should spend more time investigating how he could loose 90% in 2 years, instead of hedge funds, but that's a different story. Anyway, he was touting a bunch of internet penny stocks. He even used the words Gramm and Dodd in a sentence describing burn rates. The poor guys must be rolling in their graves.
In this week's barrons, there is an interview with a tech investor who calls for a "supernova rally" whatever that is....
I can go on and on...
This is usually market top behavior, just like when CNBC does a special on shorting (which acutally aired the day before the october bottom).
Did you hear Cramer last night. He is so wild eye bullish I really can't believe he doesn't have a ton of shorts hidden somewhere. These guys on CNBC and the like , why should they tell the truth. This is salesmanship at it's highest level, a salesman never really gives his honest view of the product until until he's selling another. Mom and pop have moved into real estate, they feel safer there. Their money will not flow into stocks for years. My feeling is the stock market has to get purged of at least 50 % of these shitty funds before we get another REAL bull market.
Just for discussing purposes have you thought about the fact that you can't find anyone who is bullish as a sign to think about that side as a contrarian point of view. If I remember right all I ever heard about on the way down was the bullish commentaries and very few bears talking. Now it seems everyone is a bear just in time to short into a bounce/move all the way up. Also the ET contrarian point of view seems to work more often then not. It seems everyone who is getting press, start threads, ect is predicting crashes down to SP 400. At the same time as the highs of nasdaq Maria and cohorts were slapping high fives on CNBC and talking about books like DOW 40,000/New Economy.
A friends father who runs a fairly large fund of funds talks to numerous managers/hedge funds and for the most part they had all been looking to buy once the outcome of the war had been decided. I don't know if they are quite so bullish at the current levels or not though.
For disclosure purposes I currently only trade intraday and have no positions long or short. I was just trying to bring up points for discussion.
A friends father who runs a fairly large fund of funds talks to numerous managers/hedge funds and for the most part they had all been looking to buy once the outcome of the war had been decided. I don't know if they are quite so bullish at the current levels or not though.
For disclosure purposes I currently only trade intraday and have no positions long or short. I was just trying to bring up points for discussion.
the 'bull is back' headline of barrons 2 weeks ago, causes me some concern, but i am remaining bullish untill proven wrong, as stated in the surf report at the stops noted.
best,
surf
best,
surf
Good Thread,
There has been "Declining Volume" of this last leg up......(S&P futures )
Sure Bearish in the classical sense.
Just another nail in the coffin ???
Transportation is a leading economic indicator coming out of recessions........
sure has had a strong up move.
Confuses me..........someone have a thought here ?....
What would happen if some ...."REALLY BIG MONEY".....
decided to go on a selective buying jag......
Just to nudge the market over that overhead hump ?
I always suspect a Snake at the exact worse moment.....
Thoughts ?
There has been "Declining Volume" of this last leg up......(S&P futures )
Sure Bearish in the classical sense.
Just another nail in the coffin ???
Transportation is a leading economic indicator coming out of recessions........
sure has had a strong up move.
Confuses me..........someone have a thought here ?....
What would happen if some ...."REALLY BIG MONEY".....
decided to go on a selective buying jag......
Just to nudge the market over that overhead hump ?
I always suspect a Snake at the exact worse moment.....
Thoughts ?