Who's Bearish?

I am starting a small put collection and think the top is in near. I think alot of the big shorts got hauled away in body bags in the pre war rally but they will grow some new balls once the institutional selling starts. It's amazing how quick the mood can change when the exit door opens. I am standing by that door now. I could be wrong .... I cant give you a good reason to go short. Usually when I get that feeling we fall. I will trade the futures with the days trend but I will be looking south. Happy trading :)
 
Quote from praetorian2:



Usually, at least a few will be faked out. Only Kudlow and Cramer are bullish. Those 2 aren't slouches, and they make very good arguements to be long. Who else is long though? Where's the retail interest?
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I don't know about Kudlow, but Cramer did a great deal of daytrading. He never ran an investment fund by taking stakes in companies, he traded issues. Also, including now he has called three bull markets since 9/21/01.

Retail? Mutual funds reported almost a billion in net outflows last period. That after 4-5 weeks of net inflows.

I think the thing to do is look at all the indicators, recognize that they are at levels consistent, nay, similar, to other bear rally peaks, and then examine the various sectors, and individual issues, study money flows, and, trins, ticks, block trades, etc. and try to determine if the market has a character significantly dissimilar and stronger than that at the prior tops.

A cycle down awaits, how deep is the question.

There is no reason the indicators can't ease up and then recharge the hill, as long as money makes its way into the market.
Hedge funds started this rally, and the mutuals had to jump in 1-2-3 weeks late as $$$ came into thier coffers. If their fuel drys up, I don't see how the rally has much further to go.
 
I think this is somewhat fake. Clearly hedge funds are skittish. The big question is will mom and pop jump in to buy shares when fund managers and gurus on the tv shows state "you had better get in now or be left behind". I think so many retail stock buyers got burnt by the meltdown and fraud, they will NEVER come back. It will need a new generation hence almost two decades.
 
Quote from praetorian2:




Heh....

Most of the guys I work with intraday are BRILLIANT. MUCH MUCH smarter than me. My only skill is taking a few dozen opinions, and maybe 50 more from various columnists I respect and trying to look for material that makes sense and fits within my world view (formulated from the same people's opinions).

Yet, out of about 100 writers/traders/friends, I have only one who is bullish. Usually, at least a few will be faked out. Only Kudlow and Cramer are bullish. Those 2 aren't slouches, and they make very good arguements to be long. Who else is long though? Where's the retail interest?
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Where did you find so much respect for Kudlow? I think he's a dweeb... a permabull just like Joey Bag-of-donuts and Abbey Joseph ConeJob... and just a useless.
 
I disagree. He's bullish, no doubt. He has his reasoning, and he has served for reagan (our best president in since TR). I think he knows what he's doing, unlike cohen. I just think he'll be wrong this time.
 
The problem with Kudlow and other economists they don't participate it the real working world. They don't have to put up their money. They don't know risk. They take little or no risk with their own money.
 
Quote from praetorian2:

I disagree. He's bullish, no doubt. He has his reasoning, and he has served for reagan (our best president in since TR). I think he knows what he's doing, unlike cohen. I just think he'll be wrong this time.
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Kudlow's been bullish forever. He's nothing more than a media and market shill. He NEVER addresses the real issues... just spews crap he hopes the financially naive public will buy. He should get a REAL job somewhere... picking up trash along the interstate or something.
 
On my model it would not be possible for the moment to trade below 900 before 940 as long as the first consolidation zone is not broken at 931.96 , and then the bearish reversal at 928.74 which target 922.56 in worst case. So this is the last support to be broken to invalidate the 940 before the 900.

Projection 0 : T= 0 - Base= 930.74
Base Max 1 : T= 1 - Base= 932.40 - Proj= 933.45
Projection Max 1 : T= 1 - Base= 932.40 - Proj= 933.45
Base Min 2 : T= 2 - Base= 931.57 - Proj= 932.52
Projection Min 2 : T= 2 - Base= 931.57 - Proj= 932.52
Projection 3 : T= 3 - Base= 931.70 - Proj= 937.18
Base Max 3 : T= 4 - Base= 931.96 - Proj= 940.04
Projection Max 3 : T= 4 - Base= 931.96 - Proj= 940.04
Projection 5 : T= 5 - Base= 931.75 - Proj= 939.41
Projection 6 : T= 6 - Base= 930.96 - Proj= 936.60
Projection 7 : T= 7 - Base= 930.04 - Proj= 933.23
Retournement - : T= 8 - Base= 928.93 - Proj= 929.47
Retourn Frac - : T= 8.23 - R= 928.74
Projection 9 : T= 9 - Base= 928.11 - Proj= 926.28
Projection 10 : T= 10 - Base= 927.43 - Proj= 924.50
Projection 11 : T= 11 - Base= 926.94 - Proj= 923.32
Projection 12 : T= 12 - Base= 926.66 - Proj= 922.67
Projection Min 4 : T= 13 - Base= 926.64 - Proj= 922.56
Base Min 4 : T= 14 - Base= 926.59 - Proj= 922.61
Projection 15 : T= 15 - Base= 926.69 - Proj= 923.73
Projection 16 : T= 16 - Base= 926.84 - Proj= 925.34
Retournement + : T= 17 - Base= 926.98 - Proj= 927.49
Retourn Frac + : T= 16.75 - R= 926.94

At Friday's close we have nearly reached the first target of 933.45 so that without a break of this zone we should begin a consolidation.

(10/05/03 - 18:39 - Close: 933.12)

14 base min base: 926.59 proj: 922.61 15:00 (30:30)
13 proj min base: 926.64 proj: 922.56 14:00 (29:30)
1 base max base: 932.40 proj: 933.45 02:00 (17:30)
118 proj max base: 919.27 proj: 973.12 119:00 (134:30)
 
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