Who's an expert on the "right" position

nitro · Feb 14, 2003

Quote from Babak:

might want to look at leaps...but avoid XOm as it moves like molasses.

also may want to do some far out of the money, far dated commodity options (heating oil/oil)

as well, look at the crack spread as there may be some opportunities there as well.

Yes,

Thanks for the suggestion.

nitro

nitro · Feb 14, 2003

Quote from AAAintheBeltway:

If you are looking for a stock to profit from a spike in crude, then go for an E&P company like APA or APC, not an integrated major which might be hurt by refining margins. Of course the biggest bang will come in the futures but they have run a long way already.

My wife just wanted long QM...I talked her out of it

nitro

Babak · Feb 14, 2003

Quote from GATrader:

Hi Babak, I was looking over some literature about crack spreads and was wondering if you trade them.

What broker do you use , one who is knowlegable enough to enter crack orders. If iraq gets invaded I think the crack spread will go back down. How is that for a leading indicator of big oil !No wonder oil stox been getting whacked past couple of months.

Haven't traded a one crack spread yet. But from nymex website you will see that it is entered as one trade. Not combo. So you don't need a fancy broker to do anything other than just give you access.

http://www.nymex.com/media/crackspread.pdf

nitro · Feb 27, 2003

Gulp - Crude hit an intraday level of $40 a barrel.

I talked her out of this trade. Today, she walked in the house and looked at me out of the corner of the eye only.

If I had put on the trade (long QM,which is what she wanted) and it had been wrong, the response would have been "I don't know what I am doing, _YOU'RE_ the one that's supposed to know - why didn't you talk me out of it?"

nitro <-- can't win

swoop[TR] · Feb 27, 2003

you know what nitro? That's funny that you should post this thread again, I was just thinking about it before even logging into ET. And there it is on the front page

I'm psychic too! What a happy family.

slapshot · Feb 27, 2003

Quote from nitro:

Gulp - Crude hit an intraday level of $40 a barrel.

I talked her out of this trade. Today, she walked in the house and looked at me out of the corner of the eye only.

If I had put on the trade (long QM,which is what she wanted) and it had been wrong, the response would have been "I don't know what I am doing, _YOU'RE_ the one that's supposed to know - why didn't you talk me out of it?"

nitro <-- can't win

Sounds like a perfect opportunity to explain about the Personal Responsibility aspect of trading - 'course, this might get you a few cold nights on the couch...

My wife, a beginning scalper, actually has it in her trading plan to ignore my musings, prognostications and comments while we are trading

LOL I told her "just fade me, and one of us will make money every day..."

Paul

PS Why did you talk her out of that trade?

LionTrader · Feb 28, 2003

Quote from nitro:

Gulp - Crude hit an intraday level of $40 a barrel.

I talked her out of this trade. Today, she walked in the house and looked at me out of the corner of the eye only.

If I had put on the trade (long QM,which is what she wanted) and it had been wrong, the response would have been "I don't know what I am doing, _YOU'RE_ the one that's supposed to know - why didn't you talk me out of it?"

nitro <-- can't win

I understand you're missing out on a trade, but you could also be caught sleeping as first bomb drops and crude is getting punished oversees.

nitro · Mar 12, 2003

Quote from swoop[TR]:

you know what nitro? That's funny that you should post this thread again, I was just thinking about it before even logging into ET. And there it is on the front page I'm psychic too! What a happy family.

Heh,

Are you thinking long QM here?

nitro

nitro · Mar 12, 2003

Quote from slapshot:

Sounds like a perfect opportunity to explain about the Personal Responsibility aspect of trading - 'course, this might get you a few cold nights on the couch...

My wife, a beginning scalper, actually has it in her trading plan to ignore my musings, prognostications and comments while we are trading LOL I told her "just fade me, and one of us will make money every day..."

Paul

PS Why did you talk her out of that trade?

Paul,

I honestly did not know what the correct position was to take. In retrospect, long QM would have been juicy, but it seems MUCH too risky for me. Long calls would have required a 2 point move just to break even - I hate paying premium. Long QM, short OIH was a strong possibilty, but when I tried to explain to her why this might be the best play, she just said she wanted long QM...

nitro

nitro · Mar 12, 2003

Quote from LionTrader:

I understand you're missing out on a trade, but you could also be caught sleeping as first bomb drops and crude is getting punished oversees.

I agree completely. Another reason why in retrospect, it was not such an easy trade.

_NOW_, the endgame has gotten really interesting. My guess, long OIH, short QM, all using options, in the right ratio. These two are _WAY_ out of whack now.

nitro