Whom do you trust?

Quote from Love Trading:

Right on, RN.

I just do not understand why people do not understand that in day trading, the odds are much worst than a casino game. After commision and slippage, the odds of each bet (Trade) on average is probably 45:55 and is much worst than blackjack.

Not until one realizes this fact, he/she can work on a system to beat the odds and be a winning gambler, sorry, trader.
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A gambler in my definition is a person who speculates with the odds against them. In the long term, the house will always win, by pure statistics. This makes gambling, in my view, a pointless exercise and something that people do when they want entertainment. Anyone who runs a business soley based on luck is not really conducting business. That is one of the main reasons I dislike the constant parallels between trading and gambling. One is a serious for profit business, the other is entertainment.

For some reason I've discovered that there are people who don't believe its possible to daytrade profitably. Maybe for them its not possible, but you're going to have a hard time explaining how Marty Schwartz averaged a 25% independently audited monthly return doing just that. Obviously the odds are in his favor and he has a profitable business.
 
This is about making money, not about trust. I like the following model:

1. teacher show student a sample of real-time trade signals (around 25).

2. If student like it, afterwards real trading is made.

3. Teacher is paid from profits.

I have not traded forex for sometime. I am back, because I got a signal from my timing models. Shorted EUR/USD at 1.5060 less than one hour ago.

We will see how I do. Check the thread.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=180428
 
Quote from Georgii:

A gambler in my definition is a person who speculates with the odds against them. In the long term, the house will always win, by pure statistics. This makes gambling, in my view, a pointless exercise and something that people do when they want entertainment. Anyone who runs a business soley based on luck is not really conducting business. That is one of the main reasons I dislike the constant parallels between trading and gambling. One is a serious for profit business, the other is entertainment.

For some reason I've discovered that there are people who don't believe its possible to daytrade profitably. Maybe for them its not possible, but you're going to have a hard time explaining how Marty Schwartz averaged a 25% independently audited monthly return doing just that. Obviously the odds are in his favor and he has a profitable business.
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Georgii:

I daytrade equity/future profitably after 18 month’s hardrock. It is possible, but it is hard and you have to understand that the odds are worst than blackjack for ALL TRADES on AVERAGE, and for the profitable traders, they have to beat this negative sum game day in and day out, and the only way you can do this is to treat every trade as a bet (gamble) and develop a system to beat the odds.

In day trading, the odds ARE against you! And the odds are probably less than 45% on average for every trade! Worst than gambling! The sooner you understand this, the better you will understand how to make the odds in your favor.

95% or more has to be unprofitable, IT IS pure statistics after millions of trades, less the commission and the fees.

Marty Schwartz is a great trader who understands the odds and plays accordingly.
 
Quote from riskfreetrading:

This is about making money, not about trust. I like the following model:

1. teacher show student a sample of real-time trade signals (around 25).

2. If student like it, afterwards real trading is made.

3. Teacher is paid from profits.

I have not traded forex for sometime. I am back, because I got a signal from my timing models. Shorted EUR/USD at 1.5060 less than one hour ago.

We will see how I do. Check the thread.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=180428
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New update on EUR/USD trade. See link above.
 
Quote from Love Trading:

the odds are worst than blackjack for ALL TRADES on AVERAGE, and for the profitable traders, they have to beat this negative sum game day in and day out, and the only way you can do this is to treat every trade as a bet (gamble) and develop a system to beat the odds.

In day trading, the odds ARE against you! And the odds are probably less than 45% on average for every trade! Worst than gambling!
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"45%, negative sum, worse than gambling".......sounds to me like you don't even understand the game let alone how to play it! :)
 
Quote from Georgii:

Hello all,

I'm a new trader. One of the biggest problems I have is figuring out whom to trust as far as market analysis and learning trading skills are concerned.

I've already learned long ago not to trust "trading signals" websites (the very idea of someone else telling you to trade is silly - in that case might as well just give your money to be traded), or trading systems.

There are books written by so many people, some of whom work for brokerages, some of whom are supposedly traders, and most of them are also trading coaches.

The painful question that always seems to get asked is "If this person is a really successful trader, why are they teaching seminars? They should just be trading and making millions". Isn't there a danger in listening to the wrong source, and learning the wrong ideas about trading?

The problem comes down to trust. What criteria do you use to find out if you can trust a certain trader or analyst? Through many months of reading, I've come across many sources of information and you just have to ask yourself, what is valid and what is not. I mean, I'm sure after all the books and websites I've read I could probably write an article on how to trade, even though I am not yet a success by far.

Has anybody any suggestions on what they do in order to establish credibility? Sure, you can go trial and error, but you can end up wasting a lot of time with the wrong information.

Thanks for any input...
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Outside ET I fully trust the HERD when they cross 95% bullish or bearish - do the opposite.

Inside ET, I'm new but have no problem trusting 2 individuals thus far

TraderZones, a fellow with a particularly intemperate disposition but I believe, an excellent mentor. Some posts are sheer poetry. Should be made into an ebook. Thanks to him.

Cabletrader, for forex agility. Quicker on the draw than the outlaw, Josey Wales.

Both guarantee a good internship here at ET.

Short list? Yeah. :) :D
 
Quote from riskfreetrading:

It was to get you to take the opposite side of my trade. I thought you might one of the guys who say, "I will take the opposite side of your trade".

Shorted EUR/USD at 1.5060 on Sunday evening on this thread at link below.

350PIPS so far!


http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=180428
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You were a bit late to the party, I've been selling, buying back, selling, buying back, selling etc etc etc.....since the beginning of last week.

630 pips so far, give or take.

But how is any of this related to the thread topic? Not that it really matters but that's why I asked what it had to do with anything.

(....by the way your link doesn't seem to work! :) )
 
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