Who wins a currency war?

Quote from Misthos:

But once the game ends, and it always does, the US still has its gold. Don't get me wrong, the US prefers the fiat game to gold - and who wouldn't? It costs nothing to create fiat.

But Plan B is always an option. Default, remonetize...

Does the US really have gold reserves? Senator Ron Paul has been asking for someone to show him audit logs (last audit was in the 1950s), and nobody will come up with proof that it's really at Ft Knox. If it was there, you would think it wouldn't be too hard to produce some form of proof.
 
Quote from eMiniFreak:

Does the US really have gold reserves? Senator Ron Paul has been asking for someone to show him audit logs (last audit was in the 1950s), and nobody will come up with proof that it's really at Ft Knox. If it was there, you would think it wouldn't be too hard to produce some form of proof.

I've read up on that - and there's no proof either way. As you said, no recent audits.

But you know what else? Maybe the US is hiding something else. Maybe the US has even more reserves than stated? Maybe US policy planners knew all along that a fiat monetary system has a limited lifespan?

Either way, I am assuming they have the 8K tons. I just don't see a legitimate reason for the US to sell its gold when even at current values, it is still a fraction of the paper that exists.

At least so far...
 
Quote from Misthos:

The US does have one option at maintaining economic supremacy. But it won't be the same as the credit fueled post Bretton Woods I 1971 era we now know. It will require the US to keep a balanced budget and once again become a net global exporter.

In theory, the US can tell all its foreign creditors to go to hell. It would then back the US Dollar with gold once again. The US, by far as an individual nation has the most gold reserves in the world - at roughly 8,100 tons. Not exactly the 22,000 tons it had after WWII, but a hell of a lot more than China has today.

It would be an extremely messy transition, no doubt about that. But it is one scenario I see the US trumping China. The EU does have in the aggregate just over 10,000 tons of gold. But the EU faces a test of cohesion as this crisis plays out.

I believe the global financial system will once again use gold. It won't be by design, but by default.



Empire may be gained by gold, not gold by empire. It used, indeed to be a proverb that "It is not Philip, but Philip's gold that takes the cities of Greece."

- Plutarch

The US cannot return to either a Gold Standard or Bi-metallic (Gold and Silver) Standard.

The total removal of the Gold Standard in the US came about as a result of the failed London Gold Pool in the 1960's. It was an international event, and Nixon was responding to the fact that the US did not have significant gold reserves even then. The US also served to keep the price of gold artificially low for decades prior to this.

The US government has systematically pillaged over 99% of the value of each dollar over the past 100 years. It also unconstitutionally removed the right (not privilege) of Americans to hold gold or silver and use as legal tender, or trade in bank notes on actual bullion. Britain has been slightly better, and Australia too. Debasement of currency occurs when governments are not accountable.

The set value of a Troy Ounce (31.1g approx) of fine gold is north of $USD 50,000, and silver is, historically at least, about 1/14 of that (about $USD 3600 Tr.oz). Silver is actually worth somewhat more than this because it is a strategic metal, used greatly in industry, far more than gold.


For much of history, indeed it was Silver and not gold that was the standard. The major reason for the opium wars between the British empire and China was because even then China was the factory of the world and exported all its goods to Europe without buying much in return except for wool and wine. The Chinese wanted to be paid in silver and it drained the british treasury at an alarming pace. King George wrote a letter to the Qianlong Emperor of China begging him to buy from britain. This famous letter can still be seen in the British museum.
 
Quote from MohdSalleh:

The US cannot return to either a Gold Standard or Bi-metallic (Gold and Silver) Standard.

The total removal of the Gold Standard in the US came about as a result of the failed London Gold Pool in the 1960's. It was an international event, and Nixon was responding to the fact that the US did not have significant gold reserves even then. The US also served to keep the price of gold artificially low for decades prior to this.

The US government has systematically pillaged over 99% of the value of each dollar over the past 100 years. It also unconstitutionally removed the right (not privilege) of Americans to hold gold or silver and use as legal tender, or trade in bank notes on actual bullion. Britain has been slightly better, and Australia too. Debasement of currency occurs when governments are not accountable.

The set value of a Troy Ounce (31.1g approx) of fine gold is north of $USD 50,000, and silver is, historically at least, about 1/14 of that (about $USD 3600 Tr.oz). Silver is actually worth somewhat more than this because it is a strategic metal, used greatly in industry, far more than gold.


For much of history, indeed it was Silver and not gold that was the standard. The major reason for the opium wars between the British empire and China was because even then China was the factory of the world and exported all its goods to Europe without buying much in return except for wool and wine. The Chinese wanted to be paid in silver and it drained the british treasury at an alarming pace. King George wrote a letter to the Qianlong Emperor of China begging him to buy from britain. This famous letter can still be seen in the British museum.

So what you're saying is that a precious metal standard of sorts can not be implemented because the world prefers to allow trade imbalances to grow much more precipitously and dangerously with a fiat standard?

So what happens when the imbalances of trade under a fiat system of IOU paper grow to the point they can't be "rebalanced?"
 
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