Has blacks been staying home or going out voting more since Trump got elected?
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who will win 2020... poll
- Thread starter dozu888
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Has blacks been staying home or going out voting more since Trump got elected?
Hasn't happened his entire presidency
From Gallup
For one thing, there has been remarkably little variation in Trump's job approval ratings among any group. As my colleague Jeffrey Jones recently noted, "Perhaps the most notable aspect of Trump's quarterly average approval ratings is their stability," with less than six percentage points separating Trump's highest and lowest quarterly averages so far in his term in office. More remarkably, Trump's calendar-year averages in 2017, 2018 and through this month in 2019 have varied by only one point, coming in at 40%, 41% and 41%, respectively.
The same stability holds true for Trump's approval rating among black Americans. Gallup averages show Trump with a 10% approval rating among blacks in 2017, 11% in 2018 and 10% so far in 2019. In short, Trump's approval rating among blacks has essentially not changed over time, despite blacks presumably having had plenty of time to observe the economic gains that Trump touts as the reason why they should be moving into his camp.
You are leaving a few things out:
1. Small sample size. Even the 650 to 1500 size used in polls is considered by some to be small. Even these polls have a significant margin of error. Your sample sizes are, what? 2?
2. The proven fact that more Trump supporters do not participate in political polling than any other group.
3. Presidential Approval polls as a measure of probable election results have value, if any, near the Presidential election, not a year before.
Gallup has Trump at 43 with 53 disapproval,40% first term average ,10% with blacks and 10 % first term average with blacks.
The above article does not provide any conclusive indications for most positions concerning changes in Black support for Trump.
National polls were right with the popular vote in 2016 and 2018 though
And the prior Gallup poll had Trump's approval rating at 41%. How is that impeachment going for you guys?
But you said
2. Trump wins on increased relative popularity with this group.
So first you say Trump wins on increased relative popularity with this group but now say The above article does not provide any conclusive indications for most positions concerning changes in Black support for Trump.
Popular votes do not always win Presidential elections. Hillary agrees with this, right?
But you said
2. Trump wins on increased relative popularity with this group.
So first you say Trump wins on increased relative popularity with this group but now say The above article does not provide any conclusive indications for most positions concerning changes in Black support for Trump.
My position is not based on the article you quoted. My position is in anticipation of Democratic conduct as shown by events, some recent, manifesting into increased minority support for Trump.