Who will admit they got slaughtered averaging down today?

ondafringe said:
Not for the faint of heart. Not for me.

I'm going by memory that could be faulty, but a few years back, @volpri averaged down a long position in ES during a 40 (or maybe it was a 60) point drop and pulled it off. I was like... damn!
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I'm down like 230 points on my MES position. I could average down into it right now with like 10 or 30 more contracts, and blow my load, hoping the ticker then pops up the 10 or whatever points it would need to get to BE to escape the trade unscathed. But that would be so foolish without unlimited money, because a few more legs down and you are wiped clean.
 
This is not a market for DCA, certainly not after a potential bank run in SIVB. The whole regional bank ETF got slaughtered as well. Another 500K+ print tomorrow morning will really blow a hole in Treasury investments like SIVB has.
 
Overnight said:
I'm down like 230 points on my MES position. I could average down into it right now with like 10 or 30 more contracts, and blow my load, hoping the ticker then pops up the 10 or whatever points it would need to get to BE to escape the trade unscathed. But that would be so foolish without unlimited money, because a few more legs down and you are wiped clean.
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I hear you, without unlimited funds, it wouldn't be smart, at least with ES. But with MES and only one or two contracts, you could probably afford to average down one time with one or two more contracts after a 200+ point drop just to get your breakeven price 100+ points lower, but only when your chart read indicates a possible bottom, and as long as you are comfortable with the added risk.
 
ondafringe said:
I hear you, without unlimited funds, it wouldn't be smart, at least with ES. But with MES and only one or two contracts, you could probably afford to average down one time with one or two more contracts after a 200+ point drop just to get your breakeven price 100+ points lower, but only when your chart read indicates a possible bottom, and as long as you are comfortable with the added risk.
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Nope. Without at least 100K in the bank, averaging down on 1 MES that is 200+ points in the whole is death. Trust me, I know. Because you have to remember...The contracts have a 3 month lifespan, and 6 months if you get in early. Like the Sep Contract that is online now.

Just hear me now and believe me later...NEVER average down into a contract, even something as pikey as a SINGLE micro, unless you have 6 figures in your account. Not in this PA environment. No siree-bob. You will blow your account because of margin calls on the overnight session.

Hell, look at the action tonight...It keeps going lower and lower and lower. You want to keep averaging down into the NFP print?

How deep would you have to be in this thing from the 4200 price level with ONE contract, to get anywhere NEAR the current print of 3880? Like 50 contracts? That's 5 minis. The margin alone on that is like 80K
 
MarkBrown said:
in defense when bracket trading with high probabilities adding on accomplishes the following:
  • facilitates the speediness of the position round turn by entering at better prices because your profit target becomes closer with every better entry making the "in the market time" less.
  • by bringing your profit target closer you are taking advantage of inherent market volatility to exit profitably faster.
  • also you are moving your stop loss further out automatically as you add on, making market volatility less likely to stop you out.
like i stated you need a very accurate trading method to pull this off.
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"very accurate trading method" and averaging down seem to contradict each other

I get it, markets mean revert most of the time. People love the consistent profit day in day out. It just takes 1 to screw you over.

If you scale on both sides of the entry (averaging down and up), it might work I guess.
 
Overnight said:
Nope. Without at least 100K in the bank, averaging down on 1 MES that is 200+ points in the whole is death. Trust me, I know. Because you have to remember...The contracts have a 3 month lifespan, and 6 months if you get in early. Like the Sep Contract that is online now.

Just hear me now and believe me later...NEVER average down into a contract, even something as pikey as a SINGLE micro, unless you have 6 figures in your account. Not in this PA environment. No siree-bob. You will blow your account because of margin calls on the overnight session.

Hell, look at the action tonight...It keeps going lower and lower and lower. You want to keep averaging down into the NFP print?

How deep would you have to be in this thing from the 4200 price level with ONE contract, to get anywhere NEAR the current print of 3880? Like 50 contracts? That's 5 minis. The margin alone on that is like 80K
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Was just thinking out loud. As I mentioned earlier, averaging down is not my thing, and I know it's not yours either.
 
Overnight said:
I'm down like 230 points on my MES position. I could average down into it right now with like 10 or 30 more contracts, and blow my load, hoping the ticker then pops up the 10 or whatever points it would need to get to BE to escape the trade unscathed. But that would be so foolish without unlimited money, because a few more legs down and you are wiped clean.
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What the hell. Why do you just keep letting your positions go to shit like that?
 
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