Who wants to be a profitable trader?

[Jack_Larkin]

Wow, I got a big headache now..

If Mav talking a little sense into you gives you a headache... I can only imagine how much a day in the markets beating sense into your account would make your head throb.

Jesting aside.. how you're presenting the argument is too open to interpretation, inexact, and sorta reeks of hindsight bias. In hind sight, it seems 'that simple', but it isn't.

The prediction part is key, because seeing that the market has been consolidating recently doesn't mean it will continue to do so by the time you take a trade.. and the same goes for trends. And even if you have a method of 'predicting' that the trend or range continues long enough for you to profit from it, you're really betting on trend continuation and range continuation.. or your betting on volatility (depending on your entry methods) as Mav said.

 

[MarketAddict]

If Mav talking a little sense into you gives you a headache... I can only imagine how much a day in the markets beating sense into your account would make your head throb.

Jesting aside.. how you're presenting the argument is too open to interpretation, inexact, and sorta reeks of hindsight bias. In hind sight, it seems 'that simple', but it isn't.

The prediction part is key, because seeing that the market has been consolidating recently doesn't mean it will continue to do so by the time you take a trade.. and the same goes for trends. And even if you have a method of 'predicting' that the trend or range continues long enough for you to profit from it, you're really betting on trend continuation and range continuation.. or your betting on volatility (depending on your entry methods) as Mav said.

Are their any real traders on this site? There's no way in the world these guys trade full time... You guys cant read for sh%t.. When did I ever said i was predicting the market.. If the market is trending then it's trending..A trend is a trend is a trend.. There's no predictions involved.. A duck is a duck.. A lion is lion ...A cat is a cat..

When you look at charts for more than 7 years straight this will become much easier..

 

[Jack_Larkin]

Are their any real traders on this site? There's no way in the world these guys trade full time... You guys cant read for sh%t.. When did I ever said i was predicting the market.. If the market is trending then it's trending..A trend is a trend is a trend.. There's no predictions involved.. A duck is a duck.. A lion is lion ...A cat is a cat..

When you look at charts for more than 7 years straight this will become much easier..

When you look at a chart and go "this is trending" or "we're ranging", are you not making a bet that price will continue to move the same? Is this not your anticipation or prediction?

In hind sight the chart appears to trend, you bet that trend continues, by doing so you're predicting it doesn't fall into a range the moment you put on the trade.

Terminology aside...

 

[kut2k2]

Your key to success is going to be detecting how the market transitions ...

When did I ever said i was predicting the market.. If the market is trending then it's trending..A trend is a trend is a trend.. There's no predictions involved.. A duck is a duck.. A lion is lion ...A cat is a cat...

+1

Many traders don't realize that trend following works. They just assume that trend predicting is necessary, and that somehow price action allows you to predict trends.

Look at this way: suppose you were an undercover cop and your job was to tail and report the comings and goings of a gang leader who loves driving a Maserati all over your city for both business and pleasure. The Maserati is the security price: fast and unpredictable.

Here's the rub: your typical off-the-shelf trend indicator is like a moped. Good luck keeping track of a Maserati while riding a moped. Remember: your job is not to keep up with or pass the Maserati (i.e., your job is not to predict price), your job is just to keep the Maserati in sight. What you need is a Porsche or some other fast car as a tail car. You're not out to race the Maserati, just keep it in sight so you can keep track of it.

Very few technical indicators qualify as Porsches. Your job as a trend follower is to find one that does.

 

[MarketAddict]

+1

Many traders don't realize that trend following works. They just assume that trend predicting is necessary, and that somehow price action allows you to predict trends.

Look at this way: suppose you were an undercover cop and your job was to tail and report the comings and goings of a gang leader who loves driving a Maserati all over your city for both business and pleasure. The Maserati is the security price: fast and unpredictable.

Here's the rub: your typical off-the-shelf trend indicator is like a moped. Good luck keeping track of a Maserati while riding a moped. Remember: your job is not to keep up with or pass the Maserati (i.e., your job is not to predict price), your job is just to keep the Maserati in sight. What you need is a Porsche or some other fast car as a tail car. You're not out to race the Maserati, just keep it in sight so you can keep track of it.

Very few technical indicators qualify as Porsches. Your job as a trend follower is to find one that does.

I like you .. You get it

 

[MarketAddict]

When you look at a chart and go "this is trending" or "we're ranging", are you not making a bet that price will continue to move the same? Is this not your anticipation or prediction?

In hind sight the chart appears to trend, you bet that trend continues, by doing so you're predicting it doesn't fall into a range the moment you put on the trade.

Terminology aside...

So sad.. I'm not going to keep repeating myself because it's obvious most of you guys aren't trading full time.. I'm going to say this for the last time.. THERE IS NO PREDICTION INVOLVED!! If the market is ranging then the market is ranging. How the heck is this predicting? If you see a dog in the street and you say "hey look at that dog" are you predicting that's a dog? NO.. Why? because you know what a dog looks like right? Same thing with the market

In order to be a FULL TIME intraday trader you will have to understand what state the market is in.. THERE'S NO WAY AROUND THIS.. The market is ALWAYS, and I mean ALWAYS, transitioning to one state to another.. The key word is TRANSITIONING.. Go re read my first two posts again..

If i see the market trending and I put on a bet (trade) hoping that the trend will continue.. and then the trend doesn't continue.. Guess what? This means the market is TRANSITIONING to another state.. It's your job as a trader to understanding what state the market is about to go in.. My gosh, what is so hard to understand...

Do you have to trade all states? No, but it's necessary to understand every state the market is in or about go in..

 

[CoolHandLuke]

+1

Many traders don't realize that trend following works. They just assume that trend predicting is necessary, and that somehow price action allows you to predict trends.

Look at this way: suppose you were an undercover cop and your job was to tail and report the comings and goings of a gang leader who loves driving a Maserati all over your city for both business and pleasure. The Maserati is the security price: fast and unpredictable.

Here's the rub: your typical off-the-shelf trend indicator is like a moped. Good luck keeping track of a Maserati while riding a moped. Remember: your job is not to keep up with or pass the Maserati (i.e., your job is not to predict price), your job is just to keep the Maserati in sight. What you need is a Porsche or some other fast car as a tail car. You're not out to race the Maserati, just keep it in sight so you can keep track of it.

Very few technical indicators qualify as Porsches. Your job as a trend follower is to find one that does.

Unnecessary to predict the trend, find an indicator that follows it?
How do you first identify there is a trend that you can follow?
If you know a trend is in play, why do you need an indicator to follow it?
Would this indicator tell when the trend is over before it becomes painfully obvious?

Seriously, your logic seems circular.

 

[kut2k2]

Unnecessary to predict the trend, find an indicator that follows it?
How do you first identify there is a trend that you can follow?
If you know a trend is in play, why do you need an indicator to follow it?
Would this indicator tell when the trend is over before it becomes painfully obvious?

Seriously, your logic seems circular.

How so? Trends don't happen at the hard right edge, they happen over a sequence of points. IOW a trend is a pattern. If you can detect a pattern,you can take advantage of what it usually does. The key is detection, not prediction. Most technical indicators fail because they can't even do an adequate job of detection, nevermind prediction. Just because some formula gets written up in a book that goes on sale, that doesn't mean the formula is worth a damn. Look at my posts on the lousy formulae for optimal position sizing in the Trade Management forum, and optimal position sizing can (and should) be approached as an exact science. Much less science is involved in most technical indicator development.

 

[pinkman]

This thread needs live calls
(talk vs walk)

 

[CoolHandLuke]

How so? Trends don't happen at the hard right edge, they happen over a sequence of points. IOW a trend is a pattern. If you can detect a pattern,you can take advantage of what it usually does. The key is detection, not prediction. Most technical indicators fail because they can't even do an adequate job of detection, nevermind prediction. Just because some formula gets written up in a book that goes on sale, that doesn't mean the formula is worth a damn. Look at my posts on the lousy formulae for optimal position sizing in the Trade Management forum, and optimal position sizing can (and should) be approached as an exact science. Much less science is involved in most technical indicator development.

I'm wrestling with this so help me understand.

A higher high can indicate the beginning of a new trend. May be a false indication or might be true with follow thru. Only time will tell.

Are you saying your indicator can tell the difference, that price will follow thru? Isn't that "prediction" of the trend?