Quote from Option Trader:
Especially for first year traders, there are shocking statistics regarding the percentage of retail traders who lose, and lose large amounts of money or everything.
Who is on the other side of their trades? (I have my own belief about what happens, but would like to hear your input).
This may sound obvious for all the pro's among you, but since you are a "beginner", here goes, fwiw:
Making a few abstractions for simplicity's sake and ignoring commissions (these are simply add-ons and have as such nothing to do with market value being created or distroyed) for a moment, who wins and loses depends on many different things...: what products/markets are we talking about (stocks?, forex?, derivatives such as futures, etc); what time frame are we talking about (long term players, daytraders? etc) ; what type of users are we talking about (real money, leveraged money, hedgers, order executers who take a mark up in the chain but barely any open positions...?)... etc...
Stocktrading is indeed, like mentioned by some of u before, not a zero sum game: everone can be a winner (loser) at the same time, theoretically speaking (Forex however IS a zero sum game and what some people win is lost by others, all of the time).
Overal, the stock market as a whole loses value or increases in value constantly. That value change gets re-distributed constantly between all players with different mandates, different time horizons etc... A long term buyer for a pension fund ("real money") is not bothered about the loss he incurs today, he looks at medium term performance. He is less price sensitive compared to the say intraday heavily leveraged daytrader ('leveraged money"). The intra day loss of the pension fund manager gets charged to all the pension participants and on a per head basis, so it is meaningless, put into perspective. But that intraday price fluctuation for which the pension manager is less sensitive, is the bread and butter for the trade executors, or for the leveraged daytraders like us...
Which brings me to the next dimension: if you want to be a succesful daytrader, you will have to compete first of all with yourself (you are heavily leveraged and as such you wll have serious price sensitivity which others may not have, picking levels becomes much more important), you will have to compete with market makers/order executors who know particular markets very well and who can use their orders to bully the market and steamroll you in no time. You will have to compete with very experienced daytraders. Most daytraders have a proper edge either as a trader or either in a particlar stock, or both. This brings their overal probability and sustainability of success up, compared to starters who have to learn all these things the hard way first...